Millrift, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

249
FXUS61 KBGM 201049
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to be in place through the weekend.
A cold frontal boundary then moves toward the area on Monday
then pushing through Tuesday and Wednesday with shower chances.
High pressure tries to build in again late in the week with low
pressure across the Ohio Valley and southern US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our persistence pattern of sunny skies and clear nights
continues. Given the continued lack of moisture only widely
patchy fog has been observed this morning. Also, the coldest
temperature readings are only 38-39 degrees likely too warm for
frost. The advisory will likely be cancelled or expire sometime
later this morning. Temperatures should rebound well into the
60`s and 70`s this afternoon. Winds look to be slightly stronger
and from the south limiting the radiational cooling a bit with
values likely a couple of degrees warmer than this morning. the
slight warming trend should continue Sunday with highs well into
the 70`s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures continue to trend slightly upward given the
continued southerly flow. The cold front still looks to be
located across western portions of the Great Lakes. Given our
dry pattern/higher mid-level heights it would not be surprising
if any showers held off till Monday night. Still enough ensemble
members have some showers pushing into locations west of I-81
to keep the chances in place with light QPF. Model soundings do
show some higher wind gusts of 15-20 mph reaching the surface
Monday afternoon as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold frontal boundary looks to pass through the region around
the Tuesday timeframe. Right now ensemble agreement is promising
for some much needed showers ahead of the front. However, QPF
does not look like a lot at this time, less than an inch. With
clouds and some showers low temperatures look to trend a bit
warmer with slightly cooler daytime highs. Our region looks to
be in between a slow moving low pressure system to our south and
high pressure to the north Thursday and Friday. Quite a bit of
variance with ensemble data at this time between another fairly
decent shot of showers or a return to a sunnier pattern again.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clear, VFR conditions is expected for all terminals through this
TAF period.
Very shallow fog that has developed at ELM should dissipate
within the hour of this TAF period.
Outlook...
Saturday Night through Sunday...VFR, except typical valley fog
likely each late night/early morning for at least KELM.
Monday through Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers with
occasional restrictions possible.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion