Mills, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

130
FXUS63 KJKL 301724
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
124 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing moisture around the outskirts of Tropical Storm
  Imelda`s circulation could produce a few rain showers in
  Southeastern Kentucky today.
- Dry and seasonably warm conditions return on Wednesday and then
  persist into early next week.
- Valley fog is likely to develop each night this week in the
  deeper river valleys of eastern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1121 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
Just a quick refresh to the grids to incorporate the latest
surface obs and latest CAM guidance for this afternoon`s PoP
chances. Late morning text and radio products have been updated to
reflect the changes. Grids have been saved and sent.
UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between dry high pressure
to the north and low pressure centered to the southeast. For the
most part this is keeping the winds light and skies clear this
night - though some clouds are slipping into the far southeast
parts of the area from the tropical system to the southeast.
Outside of those clouds, these conditions favored good radiational
cooling for the night and a resulting ridge to valley temperature
divide throughout eastern Kentucky - while also allowing for
areas of fog in the river valleys. Specifically, temperatures vary
from the mid to upper 50s in some of the low, sheltered spots to
the mid 60s on many thermal belt hilltop locations. Meanwhile,
dewpoints are running in the mid to upper 50s, most places.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in very
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the transition of our area from under
the influence of 5h troughing through the Southeast today while
fairly strong ridging over the northwest Ohio Valley starts to
work southeast into the area later tonight, though weakening and
expanding aloft by Wednesday morning. This process will keep some
energy at mid levels over far southeast Kentucky into the evening
before this all drops south of the state tonight. By midweek,
ridging will be dominant for the region - likely holding its
influence through the rest of the week. The small model spread
during the short term portion of the forecast continues to support
using the NBM as the starting point of the grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly just to include terrain based
enhancements for temperatures tonight, but also to add in some
details from the CAMs for low PoPs later today into the evening.
Sensible weather features a pleasantly warm day with temperatures
reaching the low to mid 80s for highs most places - though a bit
cooler in the far southeast due to thicker clouds and even a few
showers around. Cannot completely rule out a stray thunderstorm
this afternoon down there but the prevailing convection will be
scattered showers nearer to the Virginia and Tennessee border.
Expect partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions tonight with
valley fog developing - becoming locally dense in southeast parts
of the area. Look for a drier and warm day on Wednesday as sfc
high pressure works into the state from the northeast.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjusting temperatures tonight for terrain based details but also
used the latest CAMs consensus to tweak PoPs through this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences for a ridge to valley
temperature split each night through next weekend. The PoPs are
still looking quite limited during the work week and into the
weekend.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The forecast guidance suite collectively resolves a mid/upper-level
ridge nudging into the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level low and tropical cyclones eject further
east-northeast into the Atlantic. That ridging feature is then
forecast to strengthen, leading to mid-level height rises and the
development of a surface high pressure system over much of the
Eastern CONUS. The persistence of these two ridging features into
the weekend will keep skies mostly clear, foster efficient diurnal
warming/mixing processes, and allow temperatures to remain above
climatological norms through next Monday.
In sensible weather terms, expect seasonably pleasant conditions
throughout the period. Afternoon highs in the mid 70s to near 80 are
forecast each day, with ridge-valley splits likely to emerge at
night. While ridgetops will see lows in the upper 50s, the cooler
valleys will experience MinTs closer to 50. A few pockets of diurnal
minimums in the upper 40s cannot be ruled out, especially in the
more sheltered valleys of far-east Kentucky. Overnight river
valley fog has been added throughout the long term forecast period
given the synoptic pattern at hand, but the fog will likely
decrease in spatial coverage each night as the ground
progressively dries out. In fact, there are no mentionable PoPs in
the forecast from Wednesday through Monday. That dryness will
likely maintain or even worsen the D0/D1 drought conditions
currently delineated across most of the commonwealth.
There are some hints of moisture return from the Gulf just beyond
the end of the forecast period. However, models disagree on both the
timing and strength of its parent feature, leading to limited
extended-range precipitation forecast confidence. The CPC`s 6-10 and
8-14 day extended period outlooks mirror this sentiment; they show a
strong (60-80% chance) for above-normal temperatures, but no strong
signal towards wetness/dryness on the precipitation side. Autumn is
climatologically the dry season in KY, but surges of moisture
related to Gulf disturbances can interrupt this and dampen the
potential for fall fire weather concerns. Thus, the evolution of
that feature could become a focal point of future long term forecast
packages. With that being said, the main idea of today`s long term
forecast is the continuation of seasonably warm and dry conditions
into early October.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF window. There`s
cloud cover associated with the tropical activity but as
mentioned, these CIGS will remain VFR. Clouds will decrease
overnight leading to increased river valley fog but fog should
remain out of the 5 main TAFs. Winds will remain light and
variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...VORST

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion