Milton Grove, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

186
FXUS61 KCTP 240440
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1240 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Muggy with above average temperatures to begin astronomical
  Fall
* Periods of much needed rainfall expected through Thursday;
  rainfall signal is unclear for the weekend (leaning dry)
* Dry pattern is likely to return by next week and could last
  into early October
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Plenty of fog showing up as we get glimpses of the near sfc on
sat images where higher clouds clear (temporarily). With obs
starting to tank, we`ve expanded the dense fog advy to the
south. There is also fog forming over the SErn few counties
where it rained (pretty hard) yesterday. We will probably need
to expand the advisory to that area, but confidence isn`t quite
there at this point. A lull in precip is expected until morning
as we are between shortwaves. However, we`ve not got enough low
level subsidence to dry the air out/prevent fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Latest HREF/NBM shows very limited shower activity (not much if
any rainfall) through Wed afternoon. Expect POPs to ramp from
SW to NE later in the day into Wednesday night. Amplifying
longwave trough stretching from the Great Lakes southward into
the Lower MS Valley will send higher pwats into the area and
promote rounds of showers and storms through Thursday night.
On balance, the rain will be highly beneficial given the
abnormal dryness (D0-D1 drought) and much below % normal precip
departures over the past several weeks; however will need to
monitor for locally heavy/repeat downpours that could lead to
some minor/urban flooding concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is still plenty of spread in the model data regarding the
pattern evolution/configuration over the Eastern U.S. from late
week through the weekend. Split flow to higher amplitude
blocking solutions are possible outcomes to add to the high
uncertainty/complexity along with 1 or 2 tropical systems off
the Carolina/Southeast coast to factor into the mix. The precip
signal is not particularly strong over CPA (highest in the
southeast) -- but we are not ready to go all-in on a dry last
weekend of September. Longer term trends do eventually favor the
return of drier conditions/lower humidity by the start of next
week into early October. This transition favors the return of
warmer than climo max temps/daytime highs and cooler nights
closer to the historical average.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A convective induced circulation center over eastern Lancaster
County early this evening will pull eastward shortly. Another
line of showers and isolated thunderstorms from near BGM,
southwest to north of PIT, will continue to slide eastward
across the area overnight. Fog will form quickly in areas that
had rain today, not all areas had any, especially across the
south. Some of the fog will likely become dense with low CIGS
later tonight, mainly in areas that have skies clear out good.
Winds are light and dewpoints are high, will aid in the
formation of fog and low CIGS. Have not had this combination
of moisture or light winds in many weeks (Late July).
Conditions should improve by mid to late morning on Wednesday,
although CIGS likely to not get to VFR levels.
Next system will track northeast across the region late
Wednesday into Thursday, bringing similar conditions to the
area that we had today, timing faster now, so more early
Thursday than late Thursday for widespread showers etc.
Less chance of showers by Friday, but now the cold front just
becomes more of a wind shift line with lower dewpoints than
anything else by the weekend.
Outlook...
Thu...Multiple rounds of SHRA and TSRA.
Fri-Sat...Still a chance of a shower.
Sun...Low cigs/vsby in possible fog early...otherwise VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion