Minchumina, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

006
FXAK69 PAFG 292318
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A generally low-impact winter preview continues through the middle
of the week. The final wave of rain/snow showers shifts northeast
across the eastern interior and east/central Brooks Range tonight
then lingering across the eastern Brooks Range through Tuesday.
Shortwave ridging and a much drier air mass shifts northeast across
the interior this evening through Tuesday night with well below
freezing temperatures in areas with clear skies. A frontal system
associated with a Bering Sea low moves onto the West Coast late
Tuesday with mainly rain along the Norton Sound coastline. However,
snow appears to be the dominant p-type further inland and especially
for elevations above 1000 ft. The eastern interior stays dry until
Wednesday night through the end of the week when deeper west-
southwest flow spreads across the interior that also brings rising
snow levels. The North Slope has northeasterly sea effect snow
shower chances through Wednesday with more isolated snow chances
across the North Slope/Brooks Range.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered rain and snow showers develop across the Eastern
Interior late today and shift northeast through Tuesday afternoon.
- Clearing skies become widespread from west to east tonight
supporting colder overnight lows in the 10s and 20s and daytime
highs in the 30s and 40s. Wednesday and Thursday appear warmest.
- Next system spreads east Wednesday into Thursday with light rain
and snow showers then steady rain and high elevation snow is
increasingly likely for Friday into Saturday.
- Southerly winds increase through the Alaska Range passes on Friday
and continue through the weekend. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph should be
common through both passes with stronger gusts to near or above 50
mph possible through Windy Pass late on Saturday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Dry conditions and mostly clear skies allow for one more cool
night before increasing clouds and a warmer air mass result in highs
mainly in the low 40s and lows mainly in the 30s.
- A 6-12 hour period of strong SE gusts of 35 to 45 mph shifts
northeast reaching the Seward Pen Tuesday evening then the Kotzebue
Sound tonight. Stronger SE winds up to 55 mph are possible for St.
Lawrence Island midday Tuesday.
- A frontal boundary tracking northeast along the West Coast late
Tuesday through Wednesday brings a few hours of steady rain and
higher elevation snow followed by scattered showers through the end
of the week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Scattered snow showers through Tuesday across central and eastern
portions of the North Slope and Brooks Range with sea-effect snow
showers near the Arctic Coast through Wednesday morning.
- Western portions of the region remain dry until Wednesday when
light snow moves into the western Brooks Range then becoming more
widespread Thursday into Friday.
- Highs in the low to mid 30s along the Arctic Coast, 20s across
most of the North Slope and foothills with teens in the Brooks Range
mountains. Overnight lows mainly in the upper teens and 20s with
single digits to lower teens in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 526 dm closed low is centered near Deadhorse this afternoon as the
final shortwave rounds the base of the trough across the eastern
interior. Primarily snow showers accompany this feature as it tracks
northeast through Tuesday, but little if any accumulation is
expected. Roughly 24-36 hours of shortwave ridging shifts east
across the interior ahead of a Bering Sea low progged to be at about
516 dm west of St. Lawrence Island Tuesday night. Strong southeast
winds gusting to around 40 mph are expected along portions of the
West Coast (up to 50 mph for St. Lawrence Island) ahead of the
systems occluded frontal boundary that tracks quickly east-northeast
across the west coast from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. A
roughly 6-9 hour period of steady rain near sea level to snow across
the northwestern interior and at higher elevations in-between
accompanies the frontal passage. Liquid equivalent amounts range
from 0.1" to 0.6" across the West Coast and Western Interior with
the largest amounts across the southern Seward Pen. Snowfall amounts
generally stay below 1" with higher amounts up to 3" above 1500 ft
elevation. Winds diminish considerably south of the front when
steady precipitation become showery. Guidance appears to be trending
toward increasing precipitation chances across the east-central
interior Wednesday into Thursday with a light rain/snow mix
expected. Southerly winds gusting to about 35 mph are possible
through the Alaska Range passes on Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
After a prolonged period of relatively quiet weather, the extended
forecast will become progressively more active. A weak low over the
West Coast will bring scattered rain/snow showers across the West
Coast and western Interior throughout the day on Thursday, along
with snow showers for the western Brooks Range. Beginning Friday
morning, a trough will begin to dig into the West Coast, bringing
more rain/snow showers before extending into the Interior by Friday
afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation will likely be on the
Seward Peninsula in the hills north of Nome from Saturday to Sunday
morning, where QPF totals are likely to be up to around an inch. The
low associated with this trough will begin to travel north through
the Bering Sea, bringing strong southerly/southwesterly winds
gusting as high as 45 mph along the coast and 40 to 50 mph gusts
through the Alaska Range passes. Continuing north, the low is
expected to go through the Bering Strait by Sunday morning, bringing
what will likely be a messy rain/snow mix to the North Slope.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Storminess increases along the West Coast over the next week, but
high water levels are not expected through Thursday. A seasonably
strong low pressure system the West Coast late this week. There is
potential for elevated water levels within a southwesterly wind
regime across the YK Delta and Norton Sound area this weekend.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>803-807-811-812-852-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-808>810-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-857-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&
$$
Kutta

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion