Mission, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS63 KUNR 050338
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
938 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold front passing through today is bringing strong northwest
  winds.
- Near freezing temperatures expected over some areas Friday and
  Saturday morning.
- Gradual warm-up expected Saturday through early next week, with
  dry conditions expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Current surface analysis shows the strong cold front mostly
through our CWA this afternoon, stretching from northeastern SD
down into southwestern SD and central Wyoming. Upper air models
show northwest flow over the FA, with narrow upper ridge over the
far western CONUS. Temperatures currently sit in the 60s to low
70s behind the front, while ahead of the front areas are in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Winds are currently out of the northwest
with gusts 40 to 60 mph.
Winds will diminish below advisory criteria early this evening as
we lose daytime heating. Cooler temperatures are expected
following this cold front, with lows tonight in the 40s across the
plains, while some areas of the higher elevation Black Hills could
get below freezing. Pattern will persist through Friday and the
first half of Saturday, as temperatures stay generally 10-15
degrees below the norm, with more widespread lows Saturday morning
reaching near Frost advisory criteria. A headline may be needed,
however that will likely be a decision for Friday as confidence
increases.
Later Saturday into Sunday we`ll see a pattern change as the upper
ridge shifts east over the Rockies and into the northern/central
plains. Temperatures gradually warm up, with highs by Monday back
into widespread 80s. Model guidance continues to show minimal precipitation
chances through the forecast period
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 935 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
VFR through period. Northwest winds will pick up tomorrow morning
with gusts of 25 to 35kt possible over the western SD plains.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Wong

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion