Modale, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

263
FXUS63 KOAX 190930
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
430 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog will impact portions of hte area this morning,
  resulting in limitations to visibility.
- A series of disturbances will make their way through the
  region, bringing a few chances for showers and thunderstorms.
- Expect a gradual warming trend through Monday with highs
  returning to the upper 70s to low-80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Patchy fog has developed across areas primarily along and east of
the Missouri River. Visibility reductions of under one mile are
expected at times. If needing to travel, use caution.
The forecast period starts out with an active weather pattern over
the Central Plains. An upper ridge will be in place over the Bighorn
Mountains and the Rockies. An upper trough will be situated over
eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, western Iowa, and northwestern
Missouri. A closed upper low over the Dakotas this morning will
slide to the southeast through the day, moving across the forecast
area this afternoon. Heading into the afternoon, there will be a 20-
30% chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning west to east.
Chances increase (30-60%) heading into the evening and overnight
hours before tapering off Saturday morning. Expect some fall-like
temperatures with highs ranging from the low to mid-70s for ares
along and north of I-80 and the mid to upper 70s for areas south.
Lows will be primarily in the 50s.
A series of shortwave troughs and disturbances will drop into the
CWA through the weekend and into Wednesday. Periodic chances for
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the course of the next
several days. As we start getting into Tuesday and Wednesday, there
is some significant deviance in where models bring a storm system.
Some models track the storm down into Kansas and Oklahoma on
Wednesday morning. Contrasting this, the GFS brings a low through
the Nebraska Panhandle before having it become ann open wave. This
solution also lags considerably behind the ECMWF.
Saturday begins a three-day warming trend, with highs in the 80s
returning to the forecast area on Monday. Lows will be primarily in
the 50s and 60s.
Uncertainty continues the further out in the forecast we get with
many interpretations of what will actually transpire.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions are observed at the start of the TAF cycle.
Radar is detecting weak thunderstorms just west of KFET, but
likelihood that this will reach KOMA is low so have not included
any mentions for this activity but will continue to monitor
trends and make amendments as needed.
Otherwise, will see ceilings drop to MVFR at KOFK after 07z and
linger through at least the late morning hours. Fog development
still appears likely at KOMA early in the TAF cycle so have
continued MVFR reductions but adjusted timing. A cluster of
showers and storms may develop after 18z across eastern
Nebraska, but likelihood of this occurring is at a 30% chance
or less. Winds will remain light through the period under 12 kts
and turn to the west northwest.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion