Moline, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

228
FXUS63 KGRR 191110
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
710 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Morning Fog For Some
- Periods of Rain and Cooler This Weekend into Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Morning Fog For Some
Moisture advection behind the backdoor cold front is working its
way southwest. With this increased moisture and low level cloud
deck visibilities are beginning to fall east of a Battle Creek to
Grand Rapids to Big Rapids line. Some spots are already dropping
below a mile, but it is uncertain how widespread these lower
values will be. Any reduced visibilities should clear within a
couple hours after sunrise. Otherwise dry conditions are expected
today with highs in the low 70s toward Clare and mid 80s around
Kalamazoo.
- Periods of Rain and Cooler This Weekend into Next Week
The upper level low over the Plains will slowly gravitate to the
western Great Lakes Saturday morning. 250mb directional
divergence, 500mb positive vorticity advection, warm air
advection, the low level jet, and warm front Saturday morning and
afternoon may bring some showers and storms to the area with the
best chances along the lakeshore. The better push of lift as the
low continues to shift east arrives Saturday night into Sunday.
We`ll still be under the influence of the upper level trough
Sunday night into Tuesday with rain and thunderstorm chances
continuing through then. Total rainfall amounts in the 25th to
75th percentile during this time range around a quarter of an inch
to just over an inch with the highest amounts along and south of
I-94. The 90th percentile highlights amounts of 1 to 2 inches from
north to south.
After the low clears Tuesday, the synoptic pattern becomes a
little more uncertain. There is a trend toward drier conditions as
we may move into a blocking pattern with the cut off low remaining
to our south. With this trend NBM PoPs have decreased to 20
percent for the remainder of the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 710 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The are of lower visibilities and ceilings 200 to 1800 feet and
visibilities around 1 SM is now over Grand Rapids, Sparta, and
Ionia County Airports. This will persist over the next 2 hours
before lifting around 13Z. Elsewhere MVFR visibilities are present
with VFR conditions along the lakeshore.
After 13Z VFR conditions are expected with easterly winds. Winds
will build this evening with gusts around 20 knots expected at MKG
and GRR through most over the overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
East to southeast offshore winds are expected today an increase
tonight reaching Small Craft Advisory levels. Lighter southeast
winds move in for Saturday with the potential for a few showers
and thunderstorms along the lakeshore. Better chance move in
Saturday night into Sunday. Under the influence of low pressure
chances for rain and storms continue into Tuesday. Waves during
this timeframe remain 2 feet our less.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion