Molokini Shoal Marine Life Conservation District Hawaii Weather Forecast Discussion

114
FXHW60 PHFO 110132
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
332 PM HST Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of showers south of Oahu has moved northward. Scattered
to numerous moderate showers are ongoing across Oahu. Light winds
will allow a land/sea breeze pattern to dominate with possible
light trades building late this weekend. Winds shift out of the
east- southeast next week with a wet and unstable pattern setting
up over the islands by midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Not many changes were made as the previous forecast remains on
track. A low pressure system far north of the islands, combined
with an associated trough, will continue to bring a light wind
flow pattern to the area through much of the weekend. These should
weaken slightly allowing for a slight uptick in winds through
tomorrow. With the lighter winds, we should continue to see land
and sea breezes over the state.
An area of showers south of Oahu has moved northward. Scattered
to numerous moderate showers are ongoing across Oahu. There is
still an isolated chance for a thunderstorm of two but those
should stay over the waters.
As the aforementioned low weakens, some moderate trades will
filter back into the islands late this weekend. An upper level low
digging southward, will position itself just west of the state by
the middle of next week. This low will induce a surface trough
that will veer and strengthen winds out of the east southeast
beginning late Monday and continuing through at least mid-week
bringing a wetter and more unstable weather pattern. Clouds and
scattered showers will focus over windward and southeastern sides
of the islands. While there are model differences it is also to
far out to see what if any impacts there will be.
&&
.AVIATION...
The general lower level southeast flow across the islands has been
weak enough to allow localized sea breezes to kick in early this
afternoon. Most sites are experiencing VFR conditions, but the
chance for MVFR and isolated IFR within lower clouds and/or
showers or thunderstorms still exists into the evening. Thickening
clouds with isolated pockets of moderate rain within higher
terrain over Oahu has prompted an AIRMET Sierra for tempo
mountain obscuration above 2500 feet that will likely continue
into this evening. Showers may shift to Kauai later tonight with
possible AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscurations. Light winds
will back a bit more east and strengthen slightly over the eastern
half of the state Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
A troughing pattern will continue to weaken trade winds near
Hawaiian waters into early next week, allowing for daytime
onshore sea breezes to continue along nearshore leeward coastal
waters. An upper level disturbance lingering north of the island
chain will bring periods of enhanced showers through the weekend.
Long range guidance shows increasing southeasterly winds by the
middle of next week in an unstable weather pattern with the
potential for increasing shower coverage and thunderstorms.
A mix of a small medium-period northwest (330 deg) swell and a
small short- to medium-period north-northeast (020 deg) swell
will maintain small surf along north facing shores through
Saturday. The smaller forerunners of a moderate to large long-
period northwest (320 deg) swell will build into Hawaiian waters
starting Sunday afternoon. This swell energy will build to High
Surf Advisory (HSA) levels by Monday, then likely hold through
Tuesday before slowly falling below from Wednesday onward.
Predicting slightly higher swell heights than the latest swell
model guidance indicates, as recent swell model forecasts were too
low as compared to nearshore ground truth buoy observations.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the
weekend with a series of background south and southwest swells.
East facing shores will remain tiny to small through Friday. In
addition, a small, medium to long period easterly swell from
Tropical Cyclone Priscilla in the East Pacific is forecast to
arrive late Saturday into Sunday.
Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to
minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal
areas during the peak high tide through Saturday morning. A
Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all coastal areas
through Saturday, and will likely be cancelled later Saturday
morning following the peak high tide cycle.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Light winds and isolated to scattered showers will help maintain
fire weather below critical thresholds for the next several days.
Inversion heights will range from 8000 to 9,000 feet.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Foster/Blood
MARINE...Farris
FIRE WEATHER...Walsh

NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion