Monastery Lake Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

785
FXUS62 KFFC 080024
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
824 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 804 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
- Above-normal temperatures through tomorrow (Wednesday) ahead
   of a cold front.
- Showers associated with the front will end on Thursday morning
   with dry, more fall-like conditions expected through Monday of
   next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 804 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Before we get to a cold front and dose of fall weather during the
latter half of the week into the weekend, we will spend some time
in the warm airmass ahead of the front. The front can be inferred
on water vapor satellite imagery roughly where there is a channel
of moisture stretching from northern Mexico to the Great Lakes.
This front will slowly sink southward through today as the
mid-/upper-level ridge currently over the Deep South weakens/is
shunted southward. Anticipate that isolated to scattered showers
will occur mainly north of I-85 today, where the front is a source
of lift. Additionally, a weak boundary surging inland off of the
Atlantic will support isolated showers and possibly a storm or two
across east-central Georgia. Ample cloud cover and warm
temperatures aloft will limit instability, making for a slight
chance (~20%) of thunder at most. Enough sky clearing is occurring
to support highs in the 80s across much of the area.
The cold front will continue its trek southeastward tonight
through tomorrow (Wednesday) and as a result, scattered showers
will gradually spread southward during this time frame. Generally
speaking, showers will occur along and south of a line from
Dahlonega to Atlanta to LaGrange. Like is the case today, dense
cloud cover and warm temperatures aloft should limit the potential
for thunderstorms to 20%-30%. Highs will again make it into the
80s across much of the area.
Total rainfall will likely be meager, with about a quarter of an
inch at most.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 804 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
By Thursday the frontal boundary from the short term will have
stalled across south GA with just a few lingering showers across
central GA. Will see a cooler/drier airmass move in behind the
frontal boundary so expecting clouds to diminish slowly through
Friday. A ridge of high pressure also develops over the eastern
Great Lake states and the New England area. This ridge begins to
build down the eastern seaboard. and into N GA by Friday morning.
By Fri afternoon/evening and wave along the tail end of the old
front begins to develop and becomes a closed low center just off
the GA/Carolina coast by early Sat morning. This low is expected
to continue to develop as it moves up the eastern seaboard through
Monday. This low center is expected to wrap up quickly pulling
whats left of the old frontal boundary NE with it and allowing a
drier airmass to filter in to the state from the N/NW. So as of
right now it looks like we could see a near perfect October
weather weekend with mostly clear skies and cooler fall like
temps.
By Thu/Fri the cooler/drier airmass behind the frontal boundary
begins to push into the state with highs mainly in the 70s
expected Thu. Will see some highs in the 60s and 70s Friday. These
cooler temps continue into the weekend with temps expected in the
70s to near 80 through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 804 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Low VFR is clearing; VFR prevails until around 08Z for all TAF
sites. There is a risk for -SHRA late tonight over Atlanta metro
after 06-09Z. Low VFR conditions are likely, with a 30% chance for
MVFR across the metro and IFR conditions cannot be ruled out (risk
below 15%). For AHN, IFR is expected after 08Z, and LIFR is expected
for MCN, aft 09Z. MVFR is also possible for CSG after 09Z.
Ceilings lift 14 - 16Z, after which VFR will prevail. Winds will
be light and variable overnight, becoming W/NW tomorrow AM.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium in pcpn/CIGs, high for all other elements.
CRS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  82  60  69 /  20  30  20   0
Atlanta         68  84  63  70 /  20  20  10  10
Blairsville     63  77  56  68 /  50  20  10  10
Cartersville    68  82  62  72 /  40  10  10  10
Columbus        68  87  67  75 /  10  20  10  10
Gainesville     67  82  61  70 /  30  20  10   0
Macon           67  85  65  71 /   0  20  30  10
Rome            68  84  61  75 /  50  20  10  10
Peachtree City  66  85  63  71 /  10  20  20  10
Vidalia         67  88  65  74 /  10  20  30  20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...CRS

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion