Moneta, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

363
FXUS61 KRNK 131648
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1248 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep our weather dry through the weekend into
early next week. A coastal low may bring an opportunity for
light rain midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) Expect dry and seasonal weather through Sunday.
High pressure remains in control across the area through
Sunday. Aside from some patchy fog Sunday morning and a few
cumulus clouds during the afternoon, expect clear skies.
Temperatures start to reach near normal with highs in the lower
80s in the Piedmont to mid 70s to around 80 west, as an upper
ridge starts to build in from the west.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s, except for a few upper 40s in
the deeper mountain valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Dry with temperatures near normal.
2. Rain chances increase Tuesday.
Quiet weather is expected to continue through Monday, as high
pressure remains firmly settled over the northeastern US and builds
southward into the Appalachians after a dry front drops through the
area. This front will stall over the southeastern US, and a low
pressure system develops along, and will track northward by the
middle of the week, although some uncertainty persists regarding the
exact track of this system, given the position and strength of the
high to the north. How these systems interact will determine the
location and amounts of rain for the middle of the week, but at this
time, showers could begin as early as Tuesday morning for parts of
NC and southern VA.
Temperatures through this forecast period will near to just above
normal through the period. Highs will be in the 70s areawide, and
lows will be in the 50s in the west, to near 60 in the east.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Showers on Wednesday, then dry weather returns for later in the
week.
2. Temperatures near to just above normal.
The beginning of the long term forecast period will be influenced by
the movement of a low pressure system that traverses along a frontal
boundary stalled along the eastern US coastline. Long range models
do continue to show differences in the position and timing of the
low, which will thus impact where the rain will fall. That being
said, confidence is lower for the forecast during the middle of the
work week. Temperatures will be cooler during the midweek with the
cloud cover over the area and scattered precipitation. Could be a
slight chances for thunder during the afternoon Wednesday, but this
pattern does not really favor thunder for this area. Brief high
pressure returns to the area after the low pulls away, and with
slight ridging at 500mb and increasing heights aloft, will see
temperatures trend warmer. Another low pressure system, associated
with a 500mb trough, tracks east late in the work week, which will
bring increased chances for rain again next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday...
VFR conditions through the period. Some fog at LWB Sunday
morning may bring 4sm through 12z. Otherwise, light winds and
clear skies with scattered cumulus.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
High pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions through
Monday. The only exception will be patchy fog in the river
valleys during the nighttime into early morning hours. By
Tuesday, the models indicate a low pressure system cutting off
along the South Carolina coast and possibly spreading moisture
northward to bring the next chance of rain and potential
MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday along and east of the Blue
Ridge. Confidence is low on the midweek system.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion