Montegut, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS64 KLIX 031846
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
146 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Rain and storm chances slowly increase through the weekend.
   Highest rain chances will be on Sunday.
- Winds and seas will remain hazardous through this weekend with
   Small Craft Advisory conditions.
- Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast
   LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS
   county is expected into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A weak low pressure system embedded within a deep layer easterly
flow pattern will pass just offshore of the region over the
weekend before moving inland and dissipating Sunday into Monday.
At the same time, a persistent high pressure system over Mid-
Atlantic states will remain in place. A tight pressure gradient
will be in place between these systems across the region, and this
will allow for a persistent east wind of 10 to 15 mph with gusts
of 20 to 25 mph through the weekend. These persistent easterly
winds will push water up onto east facing shorelines, and some
minor coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is
expected during high tide cycles. These east facing shorelines,
including flood prone areas in Hancock County, eastern Orleans
Parish, and Lower St. Bernard Parish, are covered by a coastal
flood advisory through Sunday afternoon.
Increased moisture will also take place within this deeper
easterly flow regime, but a north- south oriented moisture
gradient will continue into tomorrow over the forecast area as
east-northeast mid-level winds keep some dry air advection in
place. Moisture will finally begin to advect further inland on
Sunday as the weak surface low in the Gulf moves further west and
mid- level winds shift to a more southeasterly direction. PWATS
will increase dramatically for areas north of the I-10 corridor,
and all of the forecast area is expected to see some rainfall.
However, heavy rainfall should remain confined to areas south of
I-10. This is where PWATS will approach the daily maximum for
this time of year. This area is within a marginal risk for
localized flash flooding on Sunday and rainfall totals could
approach 2 to 3 inches in a few locations. More urban areas like
the Southshore will have the highest risk of seeing some street
flooding concerns. Greater cloud cover from the convective
development associated with the low will also help to moderate
temperatures. Highs will run near or slightly cooler than average
through the weekend in the low to mid 80s and lows will be a bit
warmer than average in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A broad and weak area of high pressure will build over the area on
Monday and Tuesday, but the region will also continue to see some
lingering moisture in the low to mid-levels as an easterly flow
pattern persists. This lingering moisture will combine with a
slightly more unstable airmass from warmer daytime highs in the
mid 80s to produce some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
in the afternoon hours on both Monday and Tuesday. The higher
dewpoints and warmer temperatures will produce a more June like
feel to the atmosphere and max heat index readings could peak into
the upper 90s each afternoon.
Going into the mid-portion of next week, forecast confidence
decreases as the spread between the various model solutions rises.
Some of the solutions indicate that a stronger northern stream
trough will drive a weak frontal boundary toward the region late
next week, but other solutions keep the ridging and overall drier
conditions in place at the end of the week. The only degree of
confidence that is higher is that the easterly flow pattern will
intensify over the region as another weak low in the Gulf passes
south of the area. Given the uncertainty, have opted to stick with
the blended NBM solution for Wednesday and Thursday. This
solution keeps temperatures warmer than average, and also has a
north-south oriented moisture and PoP gradient across the region.
Much like the pattern observed today and tomorrow, higher PoP
will be confined to the coast with largely dry conditions in place
north of I-10. A temperature gradient will also exist as clouds
and showers keep temperatures a bit cooler along the coast, but
sunnier skies allow highs to climb into the upper 80s further
inland.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A low pressure system offshore of Louisiana will keep a persistent
east-northeast wind of 10 to 15 knots in place at all of the
terminals through tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, largely VFR
conditions are expected at the majority of the terminals as drier
air limits low cloud and rain development. However, HUM will see a
higher probability of some rain showers and brief periods of MVFR
visibilities both this afternoon and again through the morning
hours tomorrow. A PROB30 group has been added to account for these
rain showers. At MSY, the rain probabilities remain low for the
next 24 hours, but probabilities climb high enough to warrant
PR0B30 groups for passing showers after 18z tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A broad area of low pressure over the central Gulf and a high
pressure system over the eastern seaboard will keep a persistent
easterly flow of 15 to 25 knots in place across all of the waters
through Sunday. These winds will also have a pretty long fetch
across the eastern Gulf waters, and this will support higher seas
of up to 10 feet in the open Gulf waters due to a combination of
wind waves and swell. Small craft advisories are in effect through
Sunday evening due to these hazardous conditions. The high will
start to become more dominant over the waters on Monday and
Tuesday, and this will allow the easterly winds to relax a bit to
between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also decrease to 2 to 4 feet as
the winds relax. However, this respite looks short-lived as
another low in the central Gulf forms by Wednesday. Increased
easterly winds of around 20 knots and higher seas will once again
take hold to close out the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  87  67  82 /   0  10  10  40
BTR  68  87  69  84 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  66  84  67  81 /  20  20  30  60
MSY  74  82  73  81 /  20  30  40  60
GPT  69  83  69  81 /  20  30  40  60
PQL  66  83  68  81 /  20  20  40  60
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ069-070-076-
     078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-570-
     572.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538-
     555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-570-572.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion