Monteria Lake, California Weather Forecast Discussion

532
FXUS66 KLOX 010723
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1223 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...30/115 PM.
A series of weak disturbances will keep a persistent night through
morning low clouds pattern going across the coasts and lower vlys
into early next week. Otherwise, skies will be clear to partly
cloudy. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to run below
normal through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...30/822 PM.
***UPDATE***
Chaotic low cloud pattern expected tonight with the potential for
fog at times focused across the high terrain, including
potentially the I-5 near the Grapevine. No updates planned this
evening.
***From Previous Discussion***
A broad WSW flow aloft will prevail tonight and Wed, with H5
heights in the 582-585 dam range. An upper level trof will move
into the E Pac Wed night and Thu, with the upper level flow
turning SW and H5 heights lowering to 579-583 dam Thu afternoon.
The upper level trof will become rather sharp as it moves E to
the CA Coast Thu night, then push into the area on Fri, with H5
heights over SW CA lowering to 571-579 dam from N-S. A broad W-NW
flow aloft will prevail on Fri.
Varying amounts of marine layer clouds will prevail mainly night
and morning hours over the coast and vlys thru Thu. Plenty of low
level moisture should prevail across the forecast area Thu night
into Fri with partly to mostly cloudy skies at times. Otherwise
clear to partly cloudy skies with dry weather is expected across
the forecast area thru Fri.
Breezy to gusty SW to NW winds can be expected each afternoon and
evening, except becoming more NW to N on Fri in association with
the upper level trof. Winds could become strong and gusty across
the I-5 Corridor into the Antelope Vly, as well as along the
Central Coast and over southern SBA County. Generally weak to
locally moderate sundowner winds are also expected across the
western Santa Ynez Mtns and western portions of the SBA County S
coast each evening.
Temps are expected to be several deg below normal thru Thu, then
become even cooler to around 5-10 deg below normal Fri. Highs over
the inland coast, vlys and lower mtns should be in the 70s to mid
80s Wed and Thu, then lower to mostly 70s Fri, except lower 80s
in the warmest vlys.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...30/114 PM.
Extended models in generally good agreement, especially the mean
ensembles. A broad upper level trof will prevail over srn CA on
Sat and Sun, then an upper level low is expected to move into nrn
CA on Mon then into NV on Tue, while a broad but dry cyclonic
flow aloft persists over SW CA.
Varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and some fog can
be expected over the coast and vlys Sat thru Tue, otherwise clear
to partly cloudy skies should prevail thru the period. Gusty NW to
N winds are expected Fri night into early Sat, with winds
probably around Advisory levels over srn SBA County and possibly
over the I-5 Corridor. Otherwise, periods of weaker northerly
winds can be expected especially night and morning hours. Temps
should run about 2-7 deg below normal overall Sat and Sun, then
drop to about 5-10 deg below seasonal norms Mon and Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...01/0716Z.
At 0622Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to as least
6000 feet.
High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD and KWJF).
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hours & flight minimums may be
off by one category from current forecast. Cigs may bounce between
categories at times. There is a 30% chance of VFR conditions
through the period at KPRB, KSBP, KBUR, and KVNY, and a 10% chance
of IFR-MVFR cigs at KSBA from 15Z-17Z Wed.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of
CIGs may be off by +/- 3 hours. BKN010 is expected to be the
lowest possible cig overnight, and no significant east wind
component is expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off
+/- 2 hours. 15% chance for OVC007-010 cigs 12Z-16Z Wed.
&&
.MARINE...30/821 PM.
Moderate confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and
choppy seas across the Santa Barbara Channel in the evening
tonight and Wednesday, with sub advisory conditions elsewhere.
High confidence in winds increasing to SCA levels across the
entire coastal waters Thursday through the weekend, except for the
inner waters adjacent to the Los Angeles and Orange County
coasts. The strongest winds are likely Friday afternoon and
evening. There is a 20% chance for Gale Force winds near Point
Conception and into the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Through Wednesday, a southerly swell of 3 to 4 feet will impact
the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed south facing
harbors. Wednesday night through Saturday, a northwest swell will
build, with seas peaking around 10 feet for the outer waters and
nearshore waters along the Central Coast. Seas will peak around 4
to 6 feet for the southern inner waters, highest in the Santa
Barbara Channel.
&&
.BEACHES...30/821 PM.
A moderately long period southerly swell will last into
Wednesday, generated by Tropical Cyclone Narda. Hazardous rip
currents and elevated surf are expected to continue for south
facing beaches, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties, as well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for the Central
Coast. Additionally, particularly vulnerable south-facing beaches
may see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry beach areas. A
Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for the Central Coast,
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zones 87-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zones 340-346-362. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Sirard
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion