Montgomery County Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

134
FXUS61 KILN 131755
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Friday. A
strong storm system will bring rain and gusty winds to the region
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry conditions are expected through tonight. River valley fog is
expected again tonight. In addition, expect some fog generally near
and north of Interstate 70. There will be some clouds that work into
primarily western portions of the region this evening, however expect
them to decrease later overnight. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s
to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will continue through the short term. High
temperatures in the 70s are expected and lows in the 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The first half of the long term period will feature quiet and
seasonably mild conditions across the region. A reinforcing dose of
cooler/drier air will push in from the N on Wednesday with the
passage of a weak cold front, with daily highs/lows for the end of
the workweek a bit closer to normal. Abundant sunshine is on tap
from Wednesday through Friday, with daily highs within a few degrees
of the 70-degree mark.
The main item of interest through the end of the workweek will be
the potential for some patchy frost, particularly Friday morning in
rural/sheltered locales of central OH through south-central OH and
NE KY. Confidence is not yet high enough to highlight in the HWO,
but will mention it here for awareness purposes. Lows on Thursday
morning will dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with similar
conditions again Friday morning. Coolest temps should evolve in
rural/sheltered locales across the ern half of the ILN FA Friday
morning.
As we progress into this weekend, the overall weather pattern will
begin to change rather quickly, with the midlevel ridge axis
breaking down as it shifts to the E through the OH Vly into the NE
CONUS by early Saturday morning. This will occur as a longwave trof
pivots into the central CONUS by Friday into early Saturday, with
broad/deep SW flow quickly becoming established from the mid MS Rvr
Vly into the OH Vly. Robust moisture advection will be ongoing
locally by Saturday, with the expectation for one or more bands of
SHRA (with some TSRA possible) likely to move through the local area
within the time frame of late Saturday afternoon through early
Sunday afternoon. Still some specifics to be worked out regarding
the timing, but the overall pattern (overlap of robust
moisture/forcing/lift) favors widespread showers (with a few
storms possible) locally during this stretch.
PWs will soar to near 200% of seasonal norms by Saturday as deep-
layer moisture streams into the region amidst strong deep-layer wind
fields. The influx of this deep moisture-rich air means that lapse
rates within the ILN FA are likely to be somewhat poor and therefore
unsupportive of stronger storm development/maintenance, particularly
through the daytime Saturday. The saturated environment may inhibit
the strong/severe storm potential, with any local threat likely to
be spatially/temporally limited Saturday night (should it evolve at
all). The better LL/midlevel lapse rates (and thus higher instby)
positioned further to SW across the mid MS Rvr Vly suggests that the
severe threat with this system should be greatest to the SW of the
immediate local area. However, details regarding the evolution of
the thermodynamic environment from late Saturday through early
Sunday will come into better focus in the coming days, so this setup
will be monitored closely for any changes (especially considering
the strong wind fields/shear that will be in place).
Although PWs will be /well/ above seasonal norms Saturday through
early Sunday, the system should remain fairly progressive, meaning
that widespread heavy rain is not a big concern at this juncture.
Certainly some isolated pockets of 2" could occur if convection
becomes more robust/widespread, but most locales will see around an
inch or less by the time the rain comes to an end Sunday afternoon.
The bulk of this rain should occur Saturday night into early Sunday
morning.
Highs on Saturday will reach into the mid/upper 70s ahead of the
rain expected to move in during the latter part of the daytime.
Temps on Sunday will be considerably cooler with widespread clouds
and early-day rain/storms, followed by the FROPA. Daytime temps will
reach into the mid/upper 60s both Sunday and Monday, with a trend
toward drier conditions once again for the end of the long term
period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There will be some cu during the afternoon today. Some mid and high
clouds will move in during the late afternoon and into the evening
hours. Later in the overnight expect a decrease in clouds. There will
be the potential for river valley fog at KLUK. Cannot rule out brief
fog at other area locations, however confidence was not high enough
to include at this time. Winds will be around 10 knots on Tuesday,
however wind gusts are expected to be isolated and therefore did not
include at this time.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds are expected for Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion