Morgantown, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

771
FXUS64 KJAN 050555 AAA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Tonight...
A field of fair weather cumulus is noted via visible satellite
with temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s F at midday.
Generally fair conditions are expected to continue into tonight
as higher humidity and temperatures than we`ve seen over the last
few days makes a brief appearance. Patchy, shallow fog will be
possible near dawn. /86/
Friday through Wednesday...
Troughing over the region will lift north a bit Friday, allowing
quasi-zonal flow aloft to exist over the region. This will result
in the hottest afternoon we`ve experienced lately as temperatures
rise into the middle 90s F for most. While heat indices with this
activity will be noticeably warmer than recently, the risk for
advisory-level heat (105 F heat indices or higher) appears low
with dewpoints generally in the lower 70s and upper 60s. One area
we will be watching more closely for near-criteria heat would be
portions of the Mississippi River Delta where maximum heat indices
could top out around 102-105 F for a brief period during the
afternoon Friday. While an HWO product/graphic for heat is not
currently in place, a small "limited" risk area may be required by
this evening should confidence increase in that outcome. The
previous forecast for the weekend into next week is largely on
track and the discussion below remains valid and unchanged. /86/
Late Friday into Saturday, troughing will again begin increasing
across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. As this is happening, a
couple of passing shortwaves on the southern periphery of a
mid/upper level and surface closed low pressure system spinning
over central Ontario Canada, will send a surface frontal boundary
south. This boundary will slowly drop through the forecast area
through the course of the day Saturday, bringing isolated to
scattered showers and storms along with it.
In the wake of this front, some slightly cooler drier air will
advect south into the CWA as high pressure builds into the region.
This will result in highs becoming more pleasant across the area as
the decrease from peaking in the mid and upper 90s on Friday, to the
low and middle 80s on Monday. Lows during this time will follow suit
as well, as they cool from the mid 60s to lower 70s on Friday night,
to the upper 50s and lower 60s of both Sunday and Monday night.
The overall troughing pattern will remain over pretty much the
entire eastern half of the United States through mid-week.
Temperatures will begin moderating up a bit both Tuesday and
Wednesday.  However, rain chances currently look confined to mainly
Southeast Mississippi during this time, where a little better
moisture looks to reside. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The is a low chance of vcty TSRA by 03Z Saturday across the
northern TAF sites that may bring lower conditions. Otherwise, VFR
conditions wl prevail areawide through the TAF period. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  87  67  86 /  30  40  10   0
Meridian      71  90  66  86 /  10  30  10   0
Vicksburg     71  84  66  86 /  40  40  10  10
Hattiesburg   72  93  70  91 /   0  20  10  10
Natchez       72  87  67  86 /  20  30  10  10
Greenville    67  81  62  84 /  50  30  10   0
Greenwood     70  84  63  86 /  50  30  10   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
LP/19/22

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion