Morganza, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

823
FXUS64 KLIX 051120
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Upper ridging from southern California to British Columbia with the
main upper low along the Quebec-Ontario border on Thursday evening.
A strong shortwave was rotating around the upper low and was over
North Dakota. High pressure was centered over Kansas and Missouri.
Dry air is in place with precipitable water values near the 25th
percentile, around 1.4 inches. This improves slightly by Saturday to
about 1.7 inches, which is only right around the median for the
first half of September. Mid-level lapse rates are relatively weak,
around 5.5 C/km, though. With a shortwave and frontal boundary in
the area, a few showers or thunderstorms can not be entirely ruled
out, but anything much more than 20 percent PoPs is probably pushing
things.
Dry air in place should allow some pretty strong solar insolation
with highs 90 to 95 today. With somewhat better moisture on Saturday
aiding in cloud production, highs Saturday could be a couple degrees
cooler than today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
With upper ridging remaining near Bermuda and over the Rockies, that
leaves upper troughing over the eastern half of the country.
Shortwaves diving southeastward through that upper trough will
reinforce drier air every couple of days. There may be brief
windows where showers or thunderstorms could occur during this
portion of the forecast. One would be the continuation from the
short term into Sunday for the extreme southwest portion of the
area, and then perhaps another around Tuesday or Wednesday. Both
of those again would not be much more than 20-30 PoPs for most of
the area, and that might be overstating things. Precipitation
chances for Tuesday and Wednesday could be slightly higher near
the Louisiana coast, but even there, below 50 percent.
The drier air would probably be more noticeable in overnight lows,
with lows in the 60s north of Interstate 10 on multiple mornings.
There is even some support in the ECMWF ensemble for overnight lows
approaching 60 degrees across northwest portions of the area on
Monday and/or Tuesday morning. For now, we won`t be going with
anything that cool, but it is a reminder that we`re approaching the
equinox in a couple weeks. We should still be able to warm
efficiently, so highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s still look to
be reasonable for most of the period. The coolest day will probably
be Monday, when it is possible we stay in the 80s area-wide.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR during this taf cycle.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Winds should be rather variable through Saturday and seas will run
around 1 foot. Heading into next week, another frontal passage
Sunday night or Monday will bring an increased pressure gradient to
the waters, potentially exceeding 15 knots over the open waters by
Monday morning. Seas will respond to these stronger winds and
increase into the 2 to 4 foot range, with these wind and wave
conditions potentially continuing into Tuesday or Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  89  68 /   0   0  20   0
BTR  94  73  92  71 /   0   0  20  10
ASD  91  70  92  71 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  94  75  92  76 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  89  72  91  72 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  91  70  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RW

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion