Moss Neck Manor Lake, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

343
FXUS61 KAKQ 051828
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
228 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A second, stronger cold front crosses the area late Saturday
into Sunday, with additional scattered showers and storms
possible. Cool high pressure builds north of the area Sunday
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Summer-like conditions continue with mostly sunny skies and
  highs around 90.
- Mild and a bit more humid tonight with lows in the 60s to
  around 70.
Latest sfc analysis indicates high pressure just offshore of the
mid-Atlantic/southeast coast. Yesterday`s cold front is now a
sfc trough that continues to become more diffuse with time.
Aloft, a broad upper level trough centered over Ontario and the
upper Great Lakes extends from the northern plains into the
OH/TN Valleys at midday. To the west, a strong cold front
extends from Michigan into the Ozarks and the Red River Valley
at midday, with deep-layered SW flow ahead of the front/upper
trough is allowing for warmer and more moist air to be pumped
into the eastern-third of the country. 18z Obs show readings
well into the 80s across inland areas, with low to mid 80s along
the coast. Local afternoon highs reaching the upper 80d to low
90s for most west of the Bay still looking on track. Also a bit
on the humid side, especially compared to the past 10 days or
so, with dewpoints climb toward 70. Skies should be mostly
sunny for the balance of the afternoon, though HRRR Smoke and
regional satellite are both noting some additional hazy
skies/smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires over the next few
hours, especially across the piedmont and I-95 corridor.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s/around 70 under a partly
to mostly cloudy sky. Could see some more fog across the
piedmont late tonight, closer to the washed out front and where
sky cover should remain a bit lower.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- A warmer day is expected Saturday, with highs in the lower
  90s. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a much stronger cold
  front. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, most
  likely inland and over the MD Lower Eastern Shore.
- Autumnal weather returns to the region on Sunday, with highs
  in the mid 70s and drier air moving back in.
The previously referenced northern stream closed low lifts NE
into Hudson Bay/N QC Saturday, dragging another, stronger front
toward the local area. Ahead of the front, we look to sneak out
one last warm and relatively humid day on Saturday, with highs
in the low 90s W of the bay and mid-upper 80s on the Eastern
Shore. Heat indices should max out in the mid 90s. Clouds start
to gradually increase in the later morning into early afternoon
out in the piedmont, increasing for the rest of the area in the
afternoon and early evening. Expecting showers/storms to
initiate NW of the area in the foothills by early afternoon,
crossing into NW portions of our area mid to late afternoon in
the NW, before progressing SE into the late evening and overnight
hours. The SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of severe weather
for much of the area, just excluding Hampton Roads and NE NC.
As for storm mode, model consensus soundings continue to show
decent lift and instability developing across the region. MLCAPE
values likely increase into the 1500-2000 J/Kg range. Best Deep
layer bulk shear profiles...and overall forcing for ascent in
general...remain oriented to our north/northeast. Nonetheless,
CAMs remain supportive of organized convection with 30-40 kts of
bulk shear available. Storm mode would therefore favor initial
scattered discrete/single cell convection along the pre-frontal
trough Saturday afternoon, with more organized muilti-cellular
line segments favored into Sat evening, with some bowing
segments presenting a damaging wind threat favored. Must be
noted that with sunset now prior to 00z, there will be a more
narrow window for peak instability and severe threat in general,
hence the Marginal Risk outlook orientation farther inland
versus at the coast.
Strong high pressure out of Canada will swoop in behind the front
and return crisp fall air to the local area on Sunday. Look for
highs mainly in the low to mid 70s, along with dewpoints falling
into the low-mid 50s. Low pressure looks to develop along the
front offshore as it exits Sunday afternoon. This could allow
for some lingering showers along the coast, as well as a mostly
cloudy sky for most of the area as the upper trough axis crosses
the area, then quickly weakens and lifts out. Lows Sunday night
will be in the low- mid 50s inland and on the Eastern Shore and
the low 60s in the SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler weather sticks around early next week.
Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the area early next
week, with a coastal trough lingering offshore. The result will
bring the return of dry, fall-like days for the first half of
next week, along with gusty NE winds (especially along the
coast). Forecast high temperatures remain in the 70s, with lows
in the low 60s along the coast, to 50s inland with a few upper
40s possible well inland each morning from Tue- Wed. Rain
chances remain quite low through the period, though they may
increase across the SE third of the area toward the end of the
period Wednesday into Thursday, as moisture rides north along
the coastal trough as it retreats back toward the coastal plain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions prevail for the 18z TAF period under a mainly
clear/sunny sky (aside from some increasing smoke aloft AOA
FL150. Southerly winds increase during the late
afternoon/evening, with gusts of ~20kt anticipated at the
coastal terminals, ~15kt at RIC. Winds should diminish again
after sunset. Could have some additional ground fog/MIFG across
the piedmont and around the KECG terminal late tonight. Guidance
has been trending upward with fog/low CIG potential for a few
hours on either side of sunrise Sat morning, as expected cloud
cover lowers overnight, given light winds and light SSW flow.
Outlook: Another chance for late day and evening isolated to
scattered afternoon/evening storms for all terminals on
Saturday, with gusty winds and short-lived VIS/CIG restrictions
possible in heavier showers and storm. VFR conditions return
Sunday through the middle of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Additional Small craft conditions have been issued across the
  Bay late today into tonight, with post- frontal SCAs likely
  for most of the marine area Sunday through the early to middle
  portion of next week.
- Moderate Rip Risk for the northern beaches today.
Sub-SCA conditions with S winds 10-15 kt and seas ~4 ft N and
2-3 ft S are expected for most of the rest of today, but there
is another S/SE surge likely by late aftn through the evening,
probably not quite as strong as what occurred on Thursday. Local
wind probs have 50-75% chc for 18kt+ sustained winds in the Bay
as we approach the early evening and into tonight. Will allow
the current headline to expire, and then issue another SCA for
later today/tonight across the Bay. For the coastal waters,
confidence at seeing 5 ft seas is lower so will likely hold off
this cycle after the SCAs on the ocean end at 6 AM.
A much stronger front is forecast to pass through early Sunday,
probably resulting in a short duration surge, followed by a bit
of a lull, with stronger winds then expected late Sunday
night/early Monday as the deeper cold air advection moves
through. Continued to go with the higher side of guidance for
the northerly winds behind the front, since guidance tends to be
too low when cooler, drier air moves in over the warm waters
this time of year. SCAs will likely be needed for much of the
area at some point Sunday into Monday. The gradient may weaken
enough for sub-SCA conditions later Monday as high pressure
builds in from the NW. Looking ahead in the extended NE winds
are expected to prevail as strong high pressure centers over New
England, allowing for winds and seas to increase Tue-Wed.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Have cancelled all Coastal Flood Advisories, with high tide now
passed. Otherwise, tidal departures in the upper Bay will
continue at around 1-1.5 feet above normal through today, but
with the next cycle later today being the lower of the daily
high tides, additional flooding is not anticipated. However, may
once again see portions of the MD eastern shore along the Bay
approach or reach into minor flood early Saturday morning. Will
allow this current cycle to finish before issuing any additional
statements or advisories.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...HET/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion