Mottville New York Weather Forecast Discussion

276
FXUS61 KBGM 141854
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
254 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Partly cloudy and seasonably mild overnight. A dry cold front moves
through on Wednesday, bringing clear skies, breezy northerly winds
and much cooler weather. High pressure will be in control through
Saturday. Temperatures warm up for the weekend, with rain likely
returning Sunday into Sunday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Stratus clouds will gradually clear from northwest to southeast late
this afternoon and evening; but the clearing is not expected to make
it into the Catskills and Poconos before sunset. After a brief
period of mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions this evening
additional clouds move back in from the north after midnight along
an incoming frontal boundary. Seasonably cool with lows in the 40s.
It starts off mainly cloudy Wednesday morning with a northerly wind
behind a dry cold front. As pwats and overall moisture drops through
the day, the clouds will thin out, scatter and dissipate by
afternoon; leading to mainly sunny skies. Northwest winds will
be breezy, between 15-25 mph in the afternoon. With shallow cold
air advection taking hold, temperatures will only rise into the
50s and low 60s (Wyoming Valley) for highs. Wednesday night
will feature clear skies, with a light but steady northwest wind
continuing 3-8 mph. If winds do decouple in the valleys then
frost will be likely, as lows dip well down into the 30s for
most locations. We will likely see freeze conditions with lows
in the upper 20s across northern Oneida county and the
Catskills...but the growing season has already ended in these
locations. Will hold off on any frost headlines for the active
growing season zones at this time, in order to get a better
handle on if/when the winds will truly decouple.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast area will be under a breezy, cool northerly flow regime
Thursday into Thursday night as an upper level trough digs into
northern New England and a surface high builds east from the Great
Lakes region. This will keep conditions sunny and cool on Thursday,
with north-northwest winds 15-25 mph in the afternoon. High temperatures
only reach the low to mid-50s despite the ample sunshine, as 850mb
temperatures hover around -1C through the day. As the high
builds east Thursday night winds will diminish and skies remain
clear. The near ideal radiational cooling setup should allow
temperatures to fall between 25 to 35F overnight, with
widespread frost/freeze conditions. Headlines will likely be
needed for the active growing season zones.
High pressure remains in control on Friday, with lighter northwest
winds under 10 mph expected. Skies will be mainly sunny and
temperatures seasonable in the mid-50s to lower 60s. A mid level
warm front moves through Friday night, bringing some clouds and
perhaps a stray shower for western areas. Not quite as cold, with
lows in the 30s to lower 40s expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This period starts off with high amplitude upper level ridging over
the forecast area on Saturday. A warm front will be in place north
of the region and south winds will be up to 10 mph, along with
surging 850mb temperatures around +12C. This should allow for mostly
sunny and warm conditions with highs well into the 60s and even
lower 70s in the valleys.
The next deep upper level trough and associated cold front
slowly moves east toward Central NY and Northeast PA later
Sunday into Sunday night. The exact timing of the front and low
pressure center remains uncertain, as there are differences in
the deterministic model guidance. The ensemble (NBM) guidance
brings in chance PoPs for showers on Sunday, with likely to
categorical PoPs for showers heading into Sunday night. Either
way, as it stands now, Sunday looks to feature increasing clouds
but still warm temperatures in the deep southerly flow ahead of
the front. By Monday, the cold fronts pushes through and cold
air advection/northwest winds return to the area. Clouds and
showers remain in the forecast on the back side of the low...and
high temperatures drop back into the 50s/low 60s.
Some broad upper level troughing remains into Tuesday with
lingering slight chance to chance for showers, perhaps lake
enhanced depending on how cold it gets at the 850mb level. Surface
temperatures remain very similar to what is expected for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering low ceilings will slowly lift closer to sunset
tonight. Most sites should lift to VFR around 22-00Z. Potential
for valley fog again tonight with the highest chances at KELM
in the typical 06-12Z timeframe. Confidence is low due to
surface winds interfering with thick fog development.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley fog
each morning.
Sunday...Restrictions possible with a front moving through.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...KL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion