849 FXUS61 KCLE 261924 AFDCLEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 324 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region and will remain in control through the weekend. A weak cold front will drop south across the lower Great Lakes by Monday before strong Canadian high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes and New England through the rest of the week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather through the near term as high pressure builds northeast across the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes. Aside from a low probability/isolated shower this afternoon across NW PA, main weather concern is fog potential late tonight into Saturday morning. Focus of fog development will likely be from the Canton/Akron area northeastward into NW PA. No dense fog mention in the forecast at the moment, but will need to watch visibility trends this evening into the overnight. If dense fog does develop, it will likely focus in the Grand River valley in western Trumbull and Ashtabula counties and smaller river valleys in NW PA and NE OH. Mainly sunny skies expected Saturday outside of diurnal cu east and any lifting fog/stratus in the morning, with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s. Clear skies expected again Saturday night with a similar radiational cooling setup, so would no be surprised to see additional fog development in the same locations as tonight.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather continues into next week with high pressure building northeast across the region Sunday. A weak cold front drops south across Lake Erie Sunday night into Monday but this should be a dry frontal passage. Canadian high pressure builds southeast into the area Monday into Monday night. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, then slightly cooler Monday with the frontal passage and an airmass change.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cooler long term period expected as Canadian high builds south into the northeast CONUS. Dry conditions favored at this point pending any tropical influence over the local area, but most model guidance agrees that the strength of the ridge will keep any tropical precipitation chances south of the region through the week. Temperature will be cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s midweek, slowly moderating into the weekend as the ridge axis shifts east. The coolest night looks to be Wednesday night with upper 30s to upper 40s across the area. No frost potential at this point in time given the stronger gradient over the area.
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.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with deterioration to IFR vsbys from fog possible overnight into Saturday morning. A similar scenario will unfold across the area tonight with the potential for reduced vsbys from fog, though it appears the coverage of fog will be more patchy than previous nights. If dense fog does develop, it will be most likely found at YNG where future TAF updates may necessitate prevailing fg inclusion.
With the exception of a north to northwest lake breeze of 5 to 8 knots at CLE/ERI, winds are generally favoring a west to southwest direction of 5 knots or less. Winds will become light and variable overnight, perhaps favoring a slight south to southeast direction.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in fog across the eastern half of the area Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected through Wednesday.
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.MARINE... Quiet marine conditions are expected through Monday with weak high pressure in place. By late Tuesday, east to northeast winds will increase across Lake Erie resulting from a developing pressure gradient between an approaching high from the north, and a tropical system off the East Coast. East to northeast winds may reach 25 to perhaps 30 knots by Wednesday and marine headlines will be needed.
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.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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SYNOPSIS...03 NEAR TERM...03 SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM...03 AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Kahn
NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion