Mount Carmel, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

637
FXUS63 KDMX 011916
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unusual early October warmth continues along with dry weather
  through Saturday.
- Breezy to windy this weekend. A heightened risk for cropland
  fires is possible given the warm and windy conditions
  combined with the cured cropland and ongoing harvest.
- 30% or less chance of showers and storms late this weekend or
  early next week.
- Conditions turning more seasonal early next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The main weather themes over the next week will be the continued
warm and dry conditions into the first part of the weekend with
rain and storm chances slowly returning over parts of the state
Sunday into early next week, which will bring cooler, more
seasonal conditions. The upper air pattern today shows that the
mid-level ridge that has been dominating the pattern has been
pushed away from the state and flattened by an arriving weak
trough. Most of this trough`s energy will lift north of the
state with nebulous shortwave energy passing over the state from
now through Thursday night. While there will be modest low
level QG convergence and theta-e advection, there is little in
the way of moisture in the column so the forecast remains dry.
As this trough lifts away, ridging will reestablish itself
Friday into Saturday, with the heat and dry conditions
persisting further into early October with highs in the 80s to
near 90 degrees through at least Saturday. Experimental HeatRisk
is picking up on the unusual late season warmth showing minor
and moderate impacts across the state Thursday through Saturday
with the most widespread moderate impacts forecast on Friday.
As a more amplified trough moves over the western CONUS late this
week into this weekend, our mid and upper level flow will become
from the southwest and increase. The pressure gradient will tighten
over the region this weekend resulting in stronger daytime winds and
gusts, which may approach 40 mph over parts of north central into
northwest Iowa as shown in BUFKIT top of mixed layer winds.
Further, the soundings show that as boundary layer mixing
occurs, warmer and drier air will be entrained to the surface
and thus temperatures and dewpoints will likely need to be
adjusted. While grasslands remain plenty green, cropland has
cured and there is a risk for cropland fires that could spread
quickly given the stronger winds. With the harvest, especially
corn, well underway with many farmers in the fields, this should
heighten the risk.
A cold front will slowly move through the state starting Sunday into
the first part of next week. There will be stronger QG convergence
and low level theta-e advection that will bring cloud cover and low
chances - generally 30% or less - for showers and storms along with
the start of a downward trend in temperatures. Sunday will still be
breezy, though the winds at the top of the mixed layer do not look
as strong. By early to the middle of next week, high
temperatures will be around seasonal levels in the upper 60s or
low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period as mid and high
level clouds exit the state this afternoon into tonight. Winds
will be from the southeast and generally between 7 to 12 knots
this afternoon before diminishing overnight and becoming from
the south late in the period.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Ansorge

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion