Mount Evergreen Cemetery, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

800
FXUS63 KTOP 292313
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and mostly dry conditions in place through this week with highs
  in the middle 80s and lows around 60.
- Precipitation chances remain overall low this coming weekend
  at around 20-30% with the peak chances coming during the
  overnight into early morning periods.
- Slightly cooler temperatures appear to be on the horizon into
  early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
At 18Z, current satellite and UA data from 12Z show ridging over the
Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region. A deep trough is set up
over the West Coast with an old cut-off low which transitioned to an
open wave over the Desert Southwest continuing to fill as it lifts
into the central Rockies. Ahead of this feature, an overall weak
southerly flow regime is in place into the southern and central
CONUS tapping into eastern Pacific moisture off the western coast of
Mexico. A weak return flow pattern is in place across the area near
the surface associated with high pressure situated east of the area
with a weak lee trough over western Kansas into the High Plains
region.
This afternoon dewpoints have scoured out near the surface a few
degrees more than past days with slightly more mixing taking place.
This has resulted in a few low clouds to form across the area.
Meanwhile, the mid to high clouds continue to work into the area
from the south/southwest due to the subtropical plume of moisture
mentioned previously. Generally, little to no change in this pattern
is anticipated through Friday as the broad trough axis is forecast
to remain over the the Pacific northwest region into the
Intermountain-West region. Any energy currently working into the
central Rockies is anticipated to dampen and fill leaving the mid to
high clouds in the forecast for the overnight period. This will
limit any fog potential into tomorrow morning.
Ensemble data into the weekend is focusing on only small chances for
precipitation generally in the overnight and morning periods across
the area with a weak frontal boundary that appears to lose upper
level support with the mean Westerlies remaining primarily north and
northwest of the region and only southern flank energy tracking
across the area. Expect any areas that see measurable precipitation
to remain light overall considering the lack of meaningful advection
patterns that appear to be developing at this time. The weak push of
a cooler airmass looks to bring temperatures overall back to near
seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions will continue. Considerable cirrus should be the
rule with perhaps a few daytime cumulus again after 16Z. The
high cloud along with some low-level mixing and crossover
temperatures in the mid 50s should be enough to keep diurnal
BR/MIFG in check.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Poage

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion