Mount Vernon, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

811
FXUS64 KSHV 030604
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
104 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Slightly above normal temperatures will continue over the next
   7 days, but widespread heat-related impacts are not expected.
- A slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will return
   across portions of the region Sunday, with additional rain
   chances through the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A huge upper ridge remains in place over most of the CONUS east of
the Rockies, with a large surface high across the Northeastern
states. Anti-cyclonic flow around the high has resulted in ENE flow
pushing across the SE CONUS and Lower Mississippi Valley.  This flow
pushed a weak cool front/upper trough underneath the ridge across
the region this past afternoon, resulting in some isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of this precip
was also aided by an easterly wave in the northern Gulf just south
of the Louisiana coast. The weak front will stall across East
Texas overnight before washing out tomorrow, while the easterly
wave is expected to remain parked across the northern Gulf. At the
same time, the Northeast CONUS surface high will shift southward
into the Mid-Atlantic States and build westward into the SE CONUS,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually our forecast area today.
Winds will become ENE, advecting in a drier and less humid
airmass. Expect mostly sunny skies today and again on Saturday,
with slightly cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs will generally
range from the mid to upper 80s, with morning lows on Saturday
dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
From Sunday into the first couple of days of next week, the Mid-
Atlantic surface high is expected shift eastward off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, which will diminish its influence over our area.
Concurrently, long-term progs have the aforementioned Gulf
easterly wave, still parked just off the Louisiana Gulf coast,
developing into a closed trough. With the upper ridge expected to
break down, the closed trough is then expected to slowly shift
northward and onshore across South Louisiana, bringing a return
in rain chances across portions of the forecast area during this
period. At this time, most of the rain is expected to be confined
to our Central and Northeast Louisiana zones, but I wouldn`t be
shocked to see rain chances expand northward in future model runs.
By the middle of next week, a long wave trough will dive south
across the CONUS, pushing a cold front into the region on
Wednesday. Although it would push the closed trough out of the
region, rain chances would remain in the forecast with the frontal
passage. Behind this front, dry weather will return by the end of
the work week, along with slightly cooler and less humid conditions.
/20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Isolated showers have finally dissipated in the vicinity of the
LFK terminal late this evening with just some remaining cu across
portions of Deep East Texas. Other than some AC across N LA, no
other cloud cover to speak of this evening and that should be the
case as we go through the remainder of the night towards sunrise.
Drier air should continue to backdoor into our region from the
east today and thus, any diurnally driven cu field should be
confined to our NE TX terminals and perhaps the TXK and SHV
terminal. Should not see the pops coverage on Friday that we saw
on Thursday and if we see any, it would be mainly near the LFK
terminal but pop forecast does not warrant a weather mention in
the LFK terminal for Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
prevail across all terminal through the 24hr TAF period.
13
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  65  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  88  63  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  88  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  90  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  89  62  88  65 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  89  61  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  90  63  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion