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Mount View Cemetery, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

435
FXUS65 KPUB 010523
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1123 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening with gusty outflow winds and brief rainfall the primary risks.

- Dry weather with above seasonal temperatures through the end of the work week.

- Increasing coverage of showers and storms Friday night, with cooler and more unsettled weather on tap for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

A weak wave moving through western CO has triggered some very isolated showers across the mountains as of 2 PM. Moisture is more limited today, but as this wave moves eastward in west southwest flow aloft, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across mainly western and northern portions of southern CO. NAMNest continues to hit at some high based convection possible along the lee trough axis across far eastern CO in area of developing CU field. Have introduced a couple hours of isolated pops for this area, but activity should move east and dissipate quickly this evening. Otherwise, it will be another cool night across southern CO.

Dry weather spreads in for Wednesday with temperatures warming a couple degrees from yesterday given rising heights aloft under modest westerly flow. Not a whole lot of change expected vs today with highs topping out into the 80s across the southeast plains 60s and 70s for the valleys and 40s and 50s for the higher mountains. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 314 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Wednesday night-Friday...Modest west to southwest flow aloft across the region on Thursday, becomes more southwest and increases through the day Friday, as upper level ridging across the Rockies moves east ahead of an upper trough digging across the Great Basin. Again, this pattern keeps dry conditions and above seasonal temperatures (some 5 to 15 degrees above normal) in place through the end of the work week, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s expected across the plains, warmest on Friday, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Overnight lows look to remain at and above seasonal levels as well, with no widespread freezing temperatures in the offing through this period.

Friday Night-Sunday night...Latest model data slows the progression of said Great Basin upper trough, though continue to differ on its amplitude as it lifts out across the Rockies through Saturday night. Increasing southwest flow aloft will bring increasing coverage of showers and a few possible embedded thunderstorms, along and west of the ContDvd Friday night and Saturday. Chances of precipitation spread east through the day Saturday into Saturday night. Current NBM data keeps the best chances of precipitation along the ContDvd and generally north of the Highway 50 Corridor. Snow levels remain relatively high (at or above 10,000 feet) with some light accumulations expected across the higher peaks, though snow levels remain subject to change if the systems takes a more southern path. The passing system sends a front across the region on Saturday, with a secondary front pushing across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, leading to cooler temperatures areawide by Sunday. How much cooler remains the question, with NBM data and other numerical guidance indicating uncertainty and larger spreads in temperatures for the weekend. At any rate, NBM supports highs in the 70s and 80s early on Saturday across the plains, and in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain, with temperatures likely cooling through the afternoon. Sunday`s temperatures cool even more, with highs mainly 60s and 70s across the plains, and mainly in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Will need to watch for the potential for sub-freezing temperatures late Sunday night into early Monday morning, mainly across the San Luis Valley.

Monday-Tuesday...Latest model data continue to differ on the timing and location of secondary energy digging back across the Great Basin, as well as the amount of available moisture across the region into the beginning of next week. With that said, NBM data keeps temperatures at to slightly seasonal levels, along with chances of precipitation into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1121 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and diurnally driven. Cloud decks will be mostly few to scattered and middle to upper-level in height. Precipitation is not expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion

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