Mount Zion Cemetery New York Weather Forecast Discussion

622
FXUS61 KOKX 131852
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
252 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Delmarva meanders into this evening, then
tracks east tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure off the North Carolina
coast becomes the primary low and tracks well east of the region
during Tuesday. Another low over eastern Canada will bring a cold
front across the region Wednesday. High pressure will build
from the west late this week while low pressure meanders over
the open Atlantic. The high will settle over the area on
Saturday while a warm front passes well to the north, then pass
east on Sunday. A cold front will then approach Sunday night,
and move through late Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A coastal low off the Delmarva will meander near the coast into
early this evening and then begin to tracks slowly eastward
through tonight. The low continues to produce gusty northeast
winds with frequent gusts up to 35 kt, and occasional y gusts
near 40 kt along the immediate coast of the Twin Forks. There
are no wind headlines as frequent gusts and sustained winds
remain below advisory levels. Winds will be gradually
diminishingbeginning early this evening. Rainfall will be
relatively light, with occasional moderate rain as bands of rain
rotate across the region. The low was producing coastal
flooding during the Monday afternoon and early evening high tide
cycle. See the TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for details.
Upper energy along the North Carolina coast late tonight will
allow for surface low pressure to deepen late tonight as the low
along the Delmarva slowly weakens and moves east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
During Tuesday morning the upper energy with the southern low
will allow for the southern low to then become the primary low
and the low will track eastward through the day while becoming a
broad low. There will be chances of light precipitation through
the day, tapering later in the day and into the evening as the
upper low moves east. Meanwhile the northern branch will also be
active with an upper trough moving into eastern Canada during
Tuesday and Tuesday night, then remaining into Wednesday. An
associated low will drag a cold front through the region during
Wednesday, and with no moisture the front comes through dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions will prevail through Sunday. It will remain breezy
  through Friday due to the pressure gradient between high pressure
  to the west and low pressure meandering out over the open Atlantic.
* Below normal temperatures will prevail through Friday with highs
  only in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Nighttime temperatures could fall
  into the 30s inland and 40s elsewhere.
* Milder weather returns this weekend as a warm front passes to the
  north and the high builds over and east of the area this weekend.
  Temperatures should reach the lower 70s by Sunday.
* A cold front will bring showers Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A coastal storm continues to impact the terminals through
tonight. This low pushes away from the area into tomorrow.
We`ll continue to flirt with IFR/MVFR conditions into this
evening, then prevail at IFR tonight. Rain becomes intermittent
tonight and clears early tomorrow morning with MVFR prevailing
by 14/15Z tomorrow at most TAF sites.
NNE gusts will range from 25-35 kt into the early evening,
especially at NYC terminals, Long Island and coastal Connecticut
terminals. Winds should start decreasing late afternoon and
will continue weakening tonight with peak gusts 20-25 kt at
coastal terminals towards day break Tuesday. North winds then
hold steady through the day tomorrow.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for ceilings and visibilities through the TAF
period.
Wind gusts could end up slightly lower than forecast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Saturday: VFR
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With strong and gusty winds from the coastal low meandering
east of the Delmarva a Gale Warning remains in effect for all
the forecast waters into late tonight, 07Z (300 AM EDT). Once
the gale conditions end small craft gusts will remain on the
non ocean waters through Tuesday, and possibly into Tuesday
evening. Then with low pressure passing east during Wednesday
gusts increase to small craft levels once again. On the ocean
waters small craft conditions will remain late tonight through
Wednesday. SCA cond expected on all waters except NY Harbor
from Wed night into Thu night, with N-NW winds gusting to 25-30
kt (highest on the ocean) and ocean seas 5-8 ft. Minimal SCA
cond Fri morning on the ocean (seas 4-6 ft and gusts still up to
25 kt) should continue into Fri morning, with a chance that
5-ft seas could could linger into the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected with additional rainfall through
Tuesday. No hydrologic impacts Tuesday night through early next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
This forecast update has maintained much of the previous
forecast with the updated guidance continuing to show additional
surge this afternoon associated with the approach of a secondary
sfc low. While some locations have fallen short categorically
from the overnight`s high tide cycle, locations across southern
Nassau and Southwest Suffolk did reach moderate levels. There is
still some concern of isolated major flooding for locations in
Nassau County and in Lindenhurst with the afternoon high tide.
Some of this will depend on the approach of the sfc low, whether
the winds become a bit more NE than NNE, and the role, if any,
of tidal piling between the overnight and this afternoon`s high
tide.
All this said, made no change to coastal flood headlines, but
messaging on major flooding has been tempered a bit more based
on the overnight trends.
For this update, maintained the blend of 75th percentile
Stevens, 75th percentile PETSS, and deterministic STOFS and
ETSS, with some minor adjustments down to peak TWL values.
Finally along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and
localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide
thru today, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking surf
around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely result
in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8 ft surf
along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the twin forks
of Long Island will also likely cause minor to moderate dune
erosion.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072-
     074-075-178.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071-
     073-078-079-081-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
     179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
     104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion