Mountain Brook, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

986
FXUS64 KBMX 061100
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
600 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
Storms remain across Tennessee at this hour near the cold front.
One outflow boundary is moving southward in northeast Alabama,
with another boundary moving into northeast Mississippi. No
convection has developed along these boundaries so far. CAMs do
still try to indicate development in our northern counties in the
next few hours along these boundaries with approaching mid-level
cooling though the last couple HRRR runs have backed off. Low-
level inhibition has increased as temperatures have fallen but
remain mild, while steepening mid-level lapse rates will still
keep MUCAPE values up around 2000 J/kg overnight. With effective
shear values around 25-30kt, some storms overnight could be strong
with small hail and gusty winds, with a very low but non-zero
risk of a severe storm with hail/damaging winds.
Meanwhile convection across North Texas is expected to grow
upscale into one or more MCSs across the ArkLaTex overnight. This
activity or at least its outflow is expected to move into Alabama
after daybreak Saturday in a weakened state. These boundaries,
the cold front moving through from the northwest, and cyclonic
flow aloft around the base of the anomalous trough across the
central/eastern US/Canada will contribute to higher chances of
showers/storms. Highest rain chances look to be across the
northern counties in the morning. Chances for scattered showers
persist into the afternoon hours and extend further southeast than
previously forecast. Mid-level lapse rates will weaken by
afternoon but with around 25 kts of 0-6km shear there will be a
risk for some strong storms with gusty winds. It does look like
activity should greatly decrease in coverage by the late
afternoon/evening hours.
Drier air filters in behind the front Saturday night and Sunday
while troughing remains over the eastern CONUS. A few spots in the
far northwest counties will get down into the 50s Saturday night.
Highs will be a few degrees below normal on Sunday. There will be a
non-zero chance for a shower in the far southeast counties with some
residual moisture near the front but most remain dry. Lows will drop
into the 50s Sunday night for areas north of I-20.
32/JDavis
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
Dry weather is expected next week, with the exception of some low
rain chances in the far southeast counties near an inverted trough
on Monday. Troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS but weaker
than it has been this week, while ridging eventually builds over the
Central CONUS. High pressure along the East Coast and associated
wedging will keep an easterly component to surface winds. This will
keep high temperatures mainly in the 80s but some lower 90s return
late in the week. Humidity levels will remain comfortable with a
dry air mass. Will note that the CPC Week 2 Hazards outlook does
indicate potential for rapid onset drought in our western
counties.
32/JDavis
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand in coverage, with all
terminals carrying PROB30s for TSRA through the evening. However,
is still looks like conditions across the region should improve
past 07/00z, with VFR conditions anticipated shortly after that.
/44/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and storms will move through the area today along a cold
front, resulting in the last chance for wetting rains for a while
for much of Central Alabama. Behind the front, min RHs Sunday and
next week will be as low as 30-35%. While no critical thresholds
will be met, the area will be dry from Sunday through Thursday,
potentially increasing fire concerns in that aspect, especially in
areas that receive little to no rain this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  62  82  58 /  60  10   0   0
Anniston    85  64  82  59 /  60  10   0   0
Birmingham  85  64  83  60 /  60  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  85  64  84  59 /  50  10   0   0
Calera      87  64  84  61 /  50  10   0   0
Auburn      89  68  85  64 /  40  20   0   0
Montgomery  91  69  87  63 /  40  10   0   0
Troy        90  69  87  64 /  40  20   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION.../44/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion