Mud Lake, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

293
FXUS65 KPIH 081148
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
548 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through this evening, then slight chance of showers
  beginning late tonight.
- Cooler and unsettled Tuesday through Friday with daily chances
  for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The last bit of showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift
eastward over the next few hours. Satellite shows clear skies
behind departing clouds with another batch of mid to high clouds
further southwest, which will filter into Southeast Idaho early
today. Winds will be light today, generally under 10 mph.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above climatological norms
again today, with widespread highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
in the valleys, 70s in the mid-elevations and mountain valleys,
and 60s in the mountains. Models continue to indicate another
round of isolated showers arriving in southwest flow beginning
late tonight and increasing in coverage heading into Tuesday.
While isolated thunder is possible, HREF probability of thunder
is less than 10 percent areawide tonight into the first part of
Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Models remain consistent in bringing next round of showers and
thunderstorms into the region Monday night, becoming more widespread
through the day Tuesday. Widespread showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms remain forecast every day through Friday,
but begin to taper off during the weekend. The only disruption to
the pattern could be temporary periods of drier conditions between
shortwaves rotating around the low, as depicted by the operational
GFS. Despite the increased rain chances through the week, average
QPF does not look all that impressive, and any particular location
may will likely see the greatest rainfall under a localized
thunderstorm. Temperatures still remain cool through the week, with
highs generally in the 70s. Ensemble means kick the trough axis east
of the region late Friday into early Saturday. NBM maintains
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in wrap-around
moisture, keeping temperatures cool through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions forecast throughout the period. Have forecast
light and variable winds with increasing high clouds beginning
this evening. Hi-res models show isolated showers lifting into
Southeast Idaho late tonight, beginning around 06z. Confidence
in timing and intensity of showers is low at this time and
therefore have only forecast VCSH at KSUN beginning at 07z. Most
HREF members keep precipitation away from KDIJ until after 12z
and therefore have not included wx in the KDIJ TAF in this
issuance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Moisture continues across East Idaho today, with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing through the
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Shortwave
feature helping to drive the convection today shifts northeast
overnight. Drier conditions are in place for Monday, and humidities
drop as low as 15-20% once again for lower elevations. Showers
return as early as Monday night for portions of the region, becoming
widespread for much of the rest of the week, along with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures drop into the 70s for daytime
highs, with afternoon humidities staying well above critical
thresholds. Although the deep Pacific trough shifts east of the area
by the weekend, enough wrap-around moisture may remain in place to
keep isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms forecast through
the weekend.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...DMH

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion