Mud Pond Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

585
FXUS61 KBGM 120530
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
130 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A round of showers will move through the area tonight before
briefly drying out for at least the first half of Sunday. There
will be a better chance of rain Sunday night into Monday as the
western side of a coastal low pressure system impacts the area.
Cooler and drier weather returns by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
250 PM Update:
A stacked area of low pressure continues to drop southward into
the area from the Great Lakes. This has brought some cloud
cover across most areas west of I-81, along with a few light
showers/sprinkles. Meanwhile, clouds extending northward from a
developing coastal low off the Carolina coast as brought mostly
cloudy skies for parts of the Wyoming Valley-Poconos-Catskills.
In between these two features, skies have been mostly sunny
this afternoon.
A round of light to moderate rain showers will pivot in from the
southeast tonight as moisture from these two systems merge
together. These showers are expected to move west of the area
and dissipate by daybreak on Sunday.
What is left of the stacked low will meander back to the west
on Sunday as the coastal low off of the Carolinas begins to
move northward. This will help pull more moisture from the
Atlantic westward into our region. It will take a while for
the rain showers/moisture associated with the northward-moving
coastal low to pivot westward into our region, so it is highly
possible that most of the daytime hours on Sunday may remain
rain-free with perhaps a few light afternoon showers across
parts of Northeast PA to the Catskills. In fact, mostly sunny
skies are currently expected for most areas west of I-81/north
of I-88, with more cloud cover expected east of I-81/south of
I-88. Where mostly sunny skies are present, highs on Sunday are
expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. Highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s are expected where the cloud cover is thicker.
Steadier rainfall begins to pivot westward into the region
Sunday night, especially after midnight. With an east-northeast
flow, some of the east facing slopes of the Catskills and
Poconos may get localized heavier rainfall, with lighter amounts
on the downwind/west side of the mountains. As this rainfall
will be synoptically-driven and not convective, the threat for
flash flooding is very low to non-existent. This will be a
much-needed gradual rainfall, rather than all of it occurring
at once like we see during convectively-driven events.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update:
The axis of heaviest rainfall looks to move into the region
Monday morning/early afternoon, which will once again be aided
by orographic lift. Rain will gradually taper off from west to
east Monday afternoon and especially during the evening as the
coastal low gradually moves off to the east. Highs on Monday are
expected to be in the 50s for most of the area due to the rain-
cooled air and extensive cloud cover.
High pressure will approach the region on Tuesday, which will
bring a return to dry weather and partly to mostly sunny skies.
With a tight pressure gradient between the departing coastal
storm and the approaching high pressure system, winds may be
somewhat gusty on Tuesday. Highs are expected to be in the 60s.
Then dry and mostly clear skies are expected Tuesday night with
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM Update:
A northwest flow regime will set up Wednesday through at least
Thursday, which will advect in a cool airmass. After highs in
the mid 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday, highs will likely only
top out in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Thursday. Chances are
that this entire period remains precipitation-free, but if a
shortwave were to manage to ride around the Central U.S. ridge,
there could be a brief round of light precipitation.
Temperatures at night would be cold enough for some snow to mix
in. However, this period is trending towards a dry solution, so
if this trend holds, the first snowflakes of the season would
not occur this upcoming week.
The longwave ridge axis moves east late week with warming
temperatures and dry weather into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain showers will continue at ELM, ITH, and SYR for the next 2
to 3 hours. Ceiling restrictions remain possible at AVP, BGM,
and ELM but even those should be improving by 09z. Then mainly
VFR conditions are expected. While confidence is low, there is a
low chance for fog at ELM and BGM prior to 12z as long as winds
are light. Today will be rain-free but the next round of rain
moves in tonight. AVP will have the best chance for a shower and
MVFR/Fuel Alt ceiling restrictions near the end of the TAF
period. Guidance also has low ceilings creeping up to BGM.
Winds will be west to northwesterly throughout this TAF period.
Sustained speeds will be 5 to 10 kts though gusts of around 15
kts will be possible this afternoon. Peak gusts will be closer
to 20 kts at AVP as a coastal system moves northward.
Outlook...
Monday...On and off rounds of rain with associated
restrictions.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BTL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion