Munnsville New York Weather Forecast Discussion

523
FXUS61 KBGM 120803
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
403 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mostly dry with a better chance of rain tonight
into tomorrow as the western side of a coastal low pressure
system impacts the area. Cooler and drier weather returns by the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM Update...
Rain is lingering east of I-81 early this morning and will
slowly dissipate by mid to late morning. Water vapor imagery
shows several upper level lows on the east coast, with one
weakening in Western NY that is responsible for the rain, and a
more robust low down off of the Carolina coasts. Deep convection
near the center of the low means that this low will likely
deepen over the next day or so as it slowly propagates up into
the Mid Atlantic region. The upper level low over Western NY
never completely dissipates and will help with creating a trough
between it and the coastal low. Today is looking mostly dry as
deeper moisture is still well south of the region and advection
does not pick up till later today and overnight when 850 mb
winds pick up out of the east at 40 to 50 knots.
This easterly flow tonight into tomorrow off the Atlantic will
bring in another round of rain, with east facing slopes being
favored. Eastern areas of the Catskills and Poconos may see a
period of heavier rain tonight into tomorrow with an additional
1 to 2 inches. Across the Twin Tiers, the Wyoming Valley, and
CNY, downslope winds may lead to some rain shadowing so QPF
along and west of I-81 north of the Poconos may see less rain
than modeled.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 AM Update...
With a western US trough digging in and a strengthening jet
stream across the central US, the coastal low gets kicked out to
sea Monday night into Tuesday with dry NW flow taking over.
Trends have been towards the ridge in the central US to be a
little farther east so a shortwave trough that was bringing a
good shot of colder air is looking more likely to miss to the
east.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
350 AM Update...
Despite not having as cold of an airmass move in, dry air,
clear skies, and long nights will lead to good chances of
another widespread frost and freeze Wednesday and Thursday
night. The central US ridge will eventually build into the
eastern US by next weekend with return flow helping to moderate
the temperatures back towards seasonable averages.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain showers will continue at ELM, ITH, and SYR for the next 2
to 3 hours. Ceiling restrictions remain possible at AVP, BGM,
and ELM but even those should be improving by 09z. Then mainly
VFR conditions are expected. While confidence is low, there is a
low chance for fog at ELM and BGM prior to 12z as long as winds
are light. Today will be rain-free but the next round of rain
moves in tonight. AVP will have the best chance for a shower and
MVFR/Fuel Alt ceiling restrictions near the end of the TAF
period. Guidance also has low ceilings creeping up to BGM.
Winds will be west to northwesterly throughout this TAF period.
Sustained speeds will be 5 to 10 kts though gusts of around 15
kts will be possible this afternoon. Peak gusts will be closer
to 20 kts at AVP as a coastal system moves northward.
Outlook...
Monday...On and off rounds of rain with associated
restrictions.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion