Muse, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

744
FXUS64 KTSA 281115
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Dry weather with above normal temperatures for the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The latest HREF has only spotty low probs for fog Sunday morning.
Will insert spotty patchy fog mention using dewpoint depression
tool. Morning lows have been on the cool side at the valley sites,
so some blend of CONSMOS was used. Expect partly to mostly sunny
skies during the day on Sunday with a slight increase in high cloud
from the west. Low level thermal fields cool slightly, so expect
highs a degree or two below highs yesterday.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
It is not uncommon to have extended periods of quiet weather in the
fall, and we are in one now. Ridging both aloft and at the surface
will prevail well into next week. The most notable change over the
coming days will be an increase in high cloud as the upper trough
over the Southwest shifts east. At least partly because of this,
high temps will trend downward through Tuesday. This upper trough
will lift out well north of the region next week and is not expected
to have an impact. A piece of energy wrapping around the western
side of upper troughing over the Southeast is expected to stay to
our southeast for the middle to latter part of next week. High temps
will trend back upward to close out the week, and will remain above
average for this time of year.
A pattern change is expected next weekend into the following week.
The more likely scenarios in the ensemble data suggest a deeper
western CONUS trough gets established and shifts east. The 12Z EC
and GFS both bring a more fall-like cold front into the area at some
point in week 2 that will bring some weather perhaps. Time will tell.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Shallow and brief fog at KBVO, KFYV and KROG forecast through 13Z. Winds
become light southerly this afternoon at OK sites and
light/variable in northwest AR with FEW-SCT cu. Variable high
clouds throughout the remainder of the forecast. Later shifts
likely will need to address fog again Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  62  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   87  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   87  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   84  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   83  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   86  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
F10   86  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion