Nahunta, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

111
FXUS62 KJAX 291732
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
132 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Tropical Storm Imelda Local Impacts This Week. High Risk of Rip
  Currents and High Surf through Mid Week. Small Craft Advisory
  through Thursday morning. Minor Coastal Flooding Possible
  Tuesday through Friday. Locally Heavy Downpours along the coast
  through tonight. Monitor forecasts at hurricanes.gov
- Increased Chances of Showers/Storms Friday through Sunday
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The region will be between high pressure to the north northwest, and
Tropical System named Imelda to the southeast through Tonight.
Showers will continue move ashore through the night, with the
greatest chances at the coast. Due to the pressure gradient between
the high and Imelda, winds will be elevated and gusty at the coast.
Lows will be above normal Tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tropical Storm Imelda is forecast to make a right hand turn away
from the east central Florida coast before strengthening into a
Hurricane as it tracks east northeast into the western Atlantic
waters. The airmass will remain nearly tropical over the eastern
half of the area as a trough remains near the FL, GA and southeast
U.S. coastline between Imelda to the southeast and high pressure
to the northwest. Breezy onshore winds at the coast will back
northerly through the day 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph, even
into the St Johns river basin as Imelda`s closest approach over
300 miles to the southeast helps to tighten our local gradient.
Skies will begin mostly cloudy and trend more partly cloudy as
drier air begins to filter into the area as Imelda`s circulation
draws in more continental air into the region as it exits away.
Isolated to scattered showers will push onshore in convergent
bands oriented north to south over our waters with a T`storm
possible. Highs will be coolest at the coast in the low 80s due
to the onshore flow and warm into the mid/upper 80s west of
highway 301.
Tuesday night, northerly winds will remain breezy at the beaches
areas 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph under partly cloudy skies
while winds lessen to 5-10 mph inland under mostly clear skies as
drier air continues to filter in. The drier air will allow for
cooler lows in the mid 60s over inland SE GA, upper 60s over
inland NE FL west of the St Johns river and coastal SE GA and
low 70s over coastal NE FL.
Wednesday, the only chances for showers will be limited to the
portion of the NE FL coast mainly south of Mayport as isolated
coastal showers move south and west into the St Johns river basin.
Winds will stay breezy at the coast 15-20 mph, but diminish with
inland extent to 10-15 mph. The onshore flow will keeps coastal
highs coolish in the low 80s with warmer near normal temperatures
inland in the mid to upper 80s west of US17.
Wednesday evening will feature a gradient of lows from the low 60s
over inland SE GA areas northwest of Waycross to low 70s at the
coast. Winds will trend northeasterly 5-10 mph inland but stay
breezy at the immediate coast 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The end of the week will feature strong high pressure over Quebec
building southward into New England and wedging down the east
coast. This will increase the local pressure gradient over the
region with breezy to potentially windy conditions, especially
at the coast and St Johns river basin as east northeast winds
strengthen. The enhanced ENE flow over the Gulf stream waters
will develop inverted coastal troughing and shower coverage will
begin to increase by Friday with highest coverage along the NE FL
coast with scattered coverage for inland areas. Isolated to
scattered T`storms also may occur due to coastal convergence and
afternoon instability.
By the weekend, a frontal boundary will lift northward across the
area slowly in tandem with low level flow switching to the ESE
that will help increase moisture levels over the area while High
pressure over the Mid Atlantic states reforms over the western
Atlantic waters to the ENE by Sunday. Scattered to numerous coastal
showers will move onshore and renew potential for locally heavy
rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches along the I-95 corridor and our
coast.
High will be below normal through Saturday, then warm to near normal
Sunday. Lows will remain near normal during the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Showers will continue to move ashore this period, with the greatest
chances near the coast. Restrictions in stratus and showers are
forecast throughout the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Area waters will be between high pressure to the north northwest,
and tropical system named Imelda to the southeast through
Tuesday. The gradient between these two features will yield
elevated and gusty winds. Conditions will remain elevated through
the end of the week as the high to the north northeast
strengthens.
Rip Currents: High Risk through Wednesday
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  84  63  85 /  10  20   0   0
SSI  71  82  68  81 /  40  30  10  10
JAX  70  84  68  84 /  30  50  10  10
SGJ  73  83  71  83 /  50  50  30  20
GNV  70  87  67  88 /  10  30  10  10
OCF  72  87  69  87 /  10  30  10  10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday
     for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday
     for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion