Naples, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

563
FXUS62 KMFL 292246
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
646 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tropical Storm Imelda is currently centered over the Bahamas and is
expected to propagate almost due north into open waters of the
western Atlantic before curving further out to sea. Therefore, minus
some marine and beach hazards, no major hazards are expected for the
region. Imelda will still be "close enough" to create an increased
pressure gradient and thus some breezy and gusty winds. With South
Florida on the far west side of Imelda`s circulation, winds today
will be gusting out of the northwest to start and likely becoming
more west-northwest as the day progresses.
Drier air will be filtering in underneath Imelda`s circulation,
minimizing the threat for widespread convection. Some shallow
showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms are possible, but
activity is expected to be less than yesterday which also was not
extremely active. The same can be said for Tuesday, where even drier
air could get filtered in and produce even less spatial coverage of
rain showers with a mostly dry day. The gusty winds will likely last
through Tuesday before decreasing.
High temperatures across the region for today and tomorrow will be
in the upper 80s to low 90s, with most areas likely reaching the low
90s as drier air will result in less cloud cover and some extra
sunshine.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The tropical system that is currently Tropical Storm Imelda will be
further departing from the area at the beginning of the long term
forecast period, so wind impacts over water will begin to diminish
heading into the middle of the week. The main story will be
lingering marine and beach hazards as it moves northwards, with wave
heights remaining quite elevated into the weekend, especially across
Palm Beach County waters. A quasi-zonal flow pattern is expected to
develop by mid-week period with perhaps a weak broad upper level
ridge. Additionally, some drier air is expected to be filtered into
South Florida with Imelda`s departure. As a result, rain chances
drop to 30-40% Wednesday. By the end of the week, guidance is
hinting at mid-level troughing development across the SE states and
Gulf plus some deeper moisture return, which could lead to an
increase in PoPs to climo once again for the end of the week and
into next weekend. With easterly flow prevailing from mid-week
towards the end of the weekend, it is safe to assume maximum
thunderstorm coverage will occur across inland areas during the
afternoon and evening. However, east coast metro areas could see a
few showers or thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon
hours with the sea breeze progression.
Daily high temperatures for the middle of the week are expected in
the low 90s for most areas. By the end of next week, a slight
decrease to the mid and upper 80s for daily high temperatures is
expected across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR through the period. Breezy northerly/northwesterly winds will
prevail overnight and into Tuesday, with gusts up to 20 kts
possible during the day. A few isolated showers could be possible
but impacts to terminals should remain limited.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A fresh to strong breeze is expected early this week across the
Atlantic waters as Tropical Storm Imelda continues to works its way
northwards in the next several days. Imelda is currently centered
over the Bahamas. These winds will be mainly out of a northwest
direction. A similar story is expected for the Gulf waters, but just
with a moderate breeze.
Hazardous winds and seas are expected for the Atlantic waters over
the next few days as increasing swell and winds occurs due to
Imelda. Seas will rise to 8-11 feet today and is expected to remain
at these heights for most of the week due to lingering swell.
Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the outer
Atlantic zones and nearshore Palm Beach waters through this evening.
This will be replaced by a Small Craft Advisory for tonight through
Wednesday night.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A high risk for rip currents continues across all Atlantic beaches
as stronger winds and swell occur due to Tropical Storm Imelda
passing nearby in the offshore Atlantic waters. An elevated risk
could persist into the end of the week and weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  92  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
West Kendall     75  92  75  91 /  10  20  20  50
Opa-Locka        75  92  76  91 /  20  30  20  50
Homestead        75  92  75  89 /  10  20  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  75  91  75  88 /  20  30  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  75  91  75  88 /  20  30  30  50
Pembroke Pines   75  94  76  91 /  10  30  30  50
West Palm Beach  75  89  75  88 /  30  40  30  40
Boca Raton       74  91  74  89 /  20  40  30  40
Naples           77  90  76  91 /  20  20  20  30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ168-
     172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...ATV

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion