Naples, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

534
FXUS62 KMFL 201138
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
738 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An overall pleasant day is expected today as north-northeast surface
flow prevails and reinforces the drier air mass currently in place.
PWATs were observed as 1.88 inches on the 00Z sounding last evening,
and global models depict potentially even lower values (1.2-1.4
inches) across interior South Florida. Mainly sunny and dry
conditions should prevail overall today, although a few coastal
showers may be possible during the morning hours today, and a couple
isolated showers or storms may develop towards the early evening
hours.
A little more moisture is able to work into the area from the south
heading into Sunday afternoon, which may provide enough juice for
slightly higher coverage of showers and storms on Sunday afternoon,
although rain chances will still remain below average in the 30-40%
range. Most of the day should be mostly sunny with showers and
storms bubbling up during the mid-afternoon time period mainly
across inland areas as surface flow veers more easterly. Minimal
impacts expected to metro areas besides slightly higher cloud cover
during the afternoon and evening compared to the morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An upper level trough near the Great Lakes is forecast to slowly
extend southward towards the southeastern US early next week. By mid
to late week, the trough transitions into a cutoff low across the
central US where it will slowly drift towards the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley areas. This could lead to a weak boundary stalled across
central Florida and potentially facilitate additional moisture
across South Florida through the week. PWATs will rise back into the
2.0-2.2 inch range by Monday afternoon which is more typical for
this time of year. East-northeast flow will prevail across South
Florida through this time period which will give the east coast
breeze the upper hand in dominating convective initiation, and
will keep the area of maximum rain chances across interior and
Southwest Florida each afternoon. Partly sunny conditions prevail
during the morning hours with shower and thunderstorm development
expected across interior areas during the each afternoon as sea
breezes push inland and we reach maximum daytime heating. Slightly
drier air might move into the region towards the end of the week
as the boundary has the potential to pass south of the area. This
could drop rain chances for Friday into the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures through the period will reach the lower 90s with
overnight lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Some bouts of sub-VFR with Atlantic showers this morning.
Conditions should improve through the day with a northeasterly
wind increasing to 10-15 kt by afternoon. APF will see a Gulf
breeze develop and turn wind more northerly.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A moderate east-northeasterly breeze will continue today. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 3 feet
while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1 to 2 feet. Despite
lower rain chances this weekend, a few showers and storms may
develop across local waters. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds
will be possible near the most robust shower and thunderstorm
activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  77  89  78 /  40  20  40  30
West Kendall     90  76  89  77 /  40  20  40  30
Opa-Locka        91  77  90  78 /  40  20  40  30
Homestead        89  77  89  77 /  40  20  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  89  78 /  30  20  40  30
N Ft Lauderdale  89  78  89  78 /  30  20  30  30
Pembroke Pines   91  78  92  78 /  30  20  40  30
West Palm Beach  88  77  89  78 /  30  10  30  30
Boca Raton       89  77  90  78 /  40  20  30  30
Naples           93  75  92  76 /  20  10  30  20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...RAG

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion