Naples, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

005
FXUS64 KSHV 042327
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
627 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
- Dry and warmer conditions will continue across the region over
   the next couple of days.
- Rain chances will return Friday evening and through the
   weekend, as an unsettled weather pattern develops over the Four
   State Region.
- Dry conditions will return by next week, with lower relative
   humidity values.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
A deep long-wave trough continues to encompass most of the lower
48 east of the Rockies, including the Four State Region. This has
kept our area in a northwest flow aloft pattern over the past
several days, bringing rain chances across the region, as a
series of weak frontal boundaries and disturbances moved through
the flow. However, much drier air aloft has worked into the region
today, which has resulted in mostly sunny skies and warmer
temperatures. Afternoon highs will likely top out in the low to
mid 90s areawide, with a few locations climbing into the upper
90s. As we move into the evening and overnight hours, the upper
pattern will start to transition as the deep trough starts to
shift back northward into the Midwest region. At the same time,
upper ridging will settle across the northern Gulf. This will
yield a southwesterly flow aloft pattern over the region for
Friday. An influx of Pacific moisture will start to move into the
region, aided by the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lorena over Baja
Mexico. But, this moisture will remain elevated for most of the
day on Friday, only resulting in high clouds across the region.
Despite the influx of clouds, models still suggest we will climb
into the low to mid 90s across the region. Dewpoints will also be
on the rise with SSW winds at the surface, resulting in higher
humidity across the area. This will result in an increase in
apparent temperatures across the region tomorrow. Although many
locations will see heat index values near or just over the 100
degree mark, we should stay below the 105 degree Heat Advisory
threshold.
By Friday evening, moisture will deepen ahead of a cold front
moving out of the Central Plains. Rain chances will return to the
region as the front moves into our northern zones. The best rain
chances will likely be for locations along and north of Interstate
30. The Storm Prediction Center has also issued a Marginal Risk
for severe storms for areas along and north of Interstate 30
Friday night through the predawn hours Saturday morning. The main
threat will be large hail, as steep lapse rates will accompany the
front. Rain chances will spread to the remainder of the forecast
area on Saturday with the passage of the front. Some lingering
rain chances will remain on Sunday, especially across our East
Texas zones, as another disturbance is expected to move across
Central Texas. This could bring some locally heavy rainfall to
those zones, which has prompted WPC to issue a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall on Sunday.
As we move into next week, a large dome of high pressure will
settle over the Midwest and eventually the Northeastern CONUS.
The clockwise northeasterly winds around the high will bring drier
and less humid air into the region. High temperatures on Monday
and Tuesday will likely remain in the 80s areawide, with a slight
warming trend into the upper 80s and lower 90s by the middle and
end of the week. But, with dewpoints expected to remain in the
50s, and long-term progs forecasting morning lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s, it will still feel like a hint of early fall across
the region. /20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
For the 05/00z TAF update...SKC prevails for all terminals this
evening, and while we will return to some SCT to BKN high clouds
towards morning, VFR conditions will also continue throughout this
TAF period. Winds could be gusty at times on Friday, with
southwesterly winds around 10 kts and gusts around 15 to 20 kts
possible, mainly around 05/15-18z. Otherwise, no major concerns
for this TAF period. /33/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  74  86 /   0   0  40  40
MLU  72  96  71  84 /   0   0  40  50
DEQ  68  91  65  78 /   0  10  50  30
TXK  73  96  69  79 /   0  10  50  40
ELD  71  95  66  79 /   0  10  50  50
TYR  74  94  69  82 /   0   0  40  40
GGG  73  95  70  84 /   0   0  40  40
LFK  73  96  73  90 /   0   0  10  30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...33

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion