Narka, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

542
FXUS63 KTOP 050000
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
700 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers developing overnight into midday Friday mainly south of
  Interstate 70 (50-90% chance).
- Quite cool Friday then slowly warming into late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
The upper pattern over the central and eastern CONUS continues to be
dominated by an upper low over Ontario. The next wave of note
rotating around it was over southern Manitoba early this afternoon.
Weak surface high pressure was centered over southern Missouri at
18Z with a cold front pushing southeast over the western Dakotas.
The cold front remains on track to pass south through the area late
this evening into overnight hours. Instability and moisture remains
weak ahead of the front with minor chances for post-frontal showers.
Greater coverage of precipitation should come during the day Friday
as the upper flow becomes more zonal with good mid-level
frontogenesis develop over east-central Kansas. Precipitable water
values push to near 1.25 inches but low levels remain dry for a
modest to perhaps moderate rain event (NBM chances for over half an
inch are less than 40%), focusing on areas south of Interstate 70.
Clouds build in overnight and slowly diminish during the day under
moderate low-level cold air advection to keep daytime temperatures
cool. The record lowest maximum value may be broken at Topeka
depending on the specifics with large spreads shown in ensemble
data. Latest NBM has about a 30% chance for the record though this
will also somewhat depend on temperatures at local midnight. NBM has
about a 75% chance for temperatures to fall below the record by this
time however.
Skies steadily clear Friday night with as surface high pressure
settles into eastern Kansas. A final, weaker front passes Saturday
with again high pressure move into the area Saturday night. Will
need to keep an eye on boundary layer conditions for fog potential
Friday night into early Saturday and Saturday night into early
Sunday. Temperatures should again stay well below normal in this
regime though insolation allowing for highs in the lower to middle
70s.
Some differences aloft begin to appear early next week, but the
western CONUS ridge looks to break down a bit with moisture return
over the High Plains providing some chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday night. The upper ridge should
build east into the Plains late in the week for mainly dry
conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Smoke remains overhead through part of the overnight period and
not expected to mix to the surface or impact visibility so have
gone with SCT mention around FL180 for sky coverage to
acknowledge obscuration. The cold front remains on track with
FROPA around 06-07Z. VFR conditions continue into the morning
with the best chances for SHRA to develop south of the terminals
so left mention of PROB30 across the terminals with a few hours
of saturation in the low to mid levels that may support SHRA
through the early morning hours.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Record lowest maximum temperatures for September 5 (Friday):
Topeka -- 65 degrees, set in 1905; forecast -- 66 degrees.
Concordia -- 59 degrees, set in 1905; forecast -- 69 degrees.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...Poage

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion