Nas Lemoore, California Weather Forecast Discussion

254
FXUS66 KHNX 122310
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
410 PM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.UPDATE...
Aviation and Air Quality Sections Updated
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. High temperatures remain cooler than average today before a
warming trend sets up for the weekend and into next week. Triple
digit chances return Tuesday and Wednesday for the San Joaquin
Valley and Mojave Desert.
2. 15 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Sierra
Nevada today leading to a 25 to 35 percent chance for 0.1" of
rainfall above 9000 feet.
3. Smoke will continue to linger as the Garnet Fire continues
to burn but with improving conditions; the smoke will not be as
thick or widespread.
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An upper level trough of low pressure is currently making its
way across the Great Basin and will continue eastward into the
upcoming weekend. The orientation of the trough places central
California upstream of the central axis, leading to north to
northwest flow aloft, and subsequently a continuation of below
average temperatures for the region. The center of the low is
expected to be located directly over north-central Nevada today,
resulting in large amounts of vorticity just to the south of the
center. This would normally be an indicator for convective
development as strong positive vorticity creates strong lifting
mechanisms, however the added benefit of the terrain from the
Sierra Nevada may cause stronger lifting. All said, there is a
15 to 30 percent chance for thunderstorms this afternoon
extending from Tulare County to Yosemite National Park. In this
area, there is a 10 to 35 percent probability for rainfall
totals this afternoon to exceed 0.1", though totals can be
greater in stationary thunderstorms and especially in the
higher elevations (generally above 9000 feet).
Entering the weekend and next week, a high pressure ridge is
projected to build in behind the progressing trough, setting up
a warming trend. There is a 65 to 90 percent chance for maximum
afternoon temperatures to exceed 95 degrees in the San Joaquin
Valley and Mojave Desert next Tuesday and Wednesday and a 50 to
75 percent chance on Thursday. Air quality may become a concern
into next week with the coming ridge; smoke from the various
fires in the area will have more difficulty dispersing under
stagnant air. However, decreasing fire activity from the larger
fires will mean smoke will not be as heavy or widespread.
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.AVIATION...
0Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail across the central
California interior for the next 24 hours. 25 percent chance of
thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada through 03Z Saturday. Areas
of Dense Smoke aloft along the Sierra Nevada over northeastern
Fresno County and nearby counties from the Garnet Fire may
impact visibility.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
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$$
public...SM
aviation....JPK
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion