Natchez Trace, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

328
FXUS64 KOHX 221736
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances through Thursday.
  Low threat for severe storms, but some could be strong and
  produce strong winds and heavy downpours.
- Minor flooding from heavy rain possible through Wednesday.
- Seasonal temperatures return by late this week and into early
  next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 948 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Current satellite imagery shows scattered mid to high level
clouds, allowing for some sunshine early this afternoon. Surface
observations report dewpoints in the upper 60s across Middle TN.
With increased daytime heating, ample moisture, and a weakly
sheared environment, expect showers and thunderstorms to begin
popping off through the afternoon.
A mid-level trough and associated shortwave move through Middle
TN over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast today and tomorrow. As mentioned in
previous discussion, SPC has issued marginal risks for severe
storms through Wednesday. Overall, looking at a low chance for
storms to become severe today as mid-level lapse rates,
instability, and shear parameters look marginal. That said, a few
storms could become strong through the afternoon. Greatest
threats will be the potential for gusty winds and heavy rain
leading to some areas seeing minor flooding.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 948 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Showers and thunderstorms continue Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Storm coverage looks to be more widespread on Wednesday as a
surface low brings more organized storms through Middle TN and
greater wind shear. Main threats will be strong gusty winds
(40-60 mph) and heavy rain. PWATs increase to around 1.90 inches
by Wednesday so flooding will be a concern, especially for any
areas that see decent rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Some showers
will linger on Thursday behind the front, drying out through the
evening. Dry weather then looks to stick around through early next
week with seasonal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
We will see unsettle weather today with widespread scattered
thunderstorms. The highest chance for thunderstorms will be
between 18 and 0z. Heavy rain and reduced vis can be expected
with any thunderstorms, gusty winds will also be possible. Some
activity will linger into the evening but overall it will be dry.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop after 09z from
around Nashville east. Southwesterly winds up to 15 knots will
shift more southerly up to 7 knots after 0z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  86  69  82 /  70  60  70  80
Clarksville    67  86  68  81 /  80  50 100  90
Crossville     63  78  63  76 /  50  50  60  70
Columbia       67  85  68  81 /  60  60  60  80
Cookeville     64  81  66  77 /  60  60  70  80
Jamestown      63  79  64  76 /  60  60  80  80
Lawrenceburg   65  84  66  81 /  50  50  60  80
Murfreesboro   67  85  68  81 /  60  60  60  80
Waverly        65  82  66  78 /  80  60  80  90
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Mueller

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion