National City Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

513
FXUS63 KAPX 081044
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
644 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Overnight low temperatures fall below freezing tonight.
-Scattered showers track across northern Michigan this Friday.
-High pressure and overall quiet weather returns this weekend
through midweek next week with near normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel trough axis is currently centered over
Hudson Bay expanded southward to the Great Lakes region. Upstream
stout shortwave ridge builds across the region today, supporting
surface high pressure and overall quiet weather through the entire
short term period.
Forecast Details...
Today...Forecast remains quiet today as surface high pressure is set
to continue and subsidence aloft, clearing cloud cover over northern
Michigan. After a cold/dry Canadian air mass settled into the Great
Lakes region from the north, daytime temperatures remain near
climatological norms for early October. Afternoon highs will reach
the mid/upper 50s this Wednesday across the entire CWA.
Tonight...Overnight hours remain the period of concern for this
short term as temperatures rapidly fall. Ideal conditions are primed
today with H8 temperatures below freezing and dew points mixing down
to the 20s. Efficient radiational cooling processes take place
shortly after sunset and allow temperatures to fall below freezing.
Expect widespread lows in the mid to upper twenties while areas
closer to the shoreline protected by marine layer influence remain
in the 30-34 range. With that being said; the usual suspects such as
Crawford, Otsego, Oscoda, Montmorency, and Roscommon counties may
have localized areas hit the low 20s to even upper teens. As a
result, a freeze watch is issued for tonight but will likely be
upgraded to a warning this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Pattern Synopsis...Embedded shortwave height disturbance develops
lee of the Canadian rockies and tracks SE today eventually making it
to the Great Lakes region by Friday. After a short period of light
scattered showers, midlevel heights rise and return ridging through
the remainder of the long term. This pattern will support overall
high pressure and quiet weather this weekend through midweek next
week.
Forecast Details...Atmospheric moisture attached to the previously
mentioned shortwave is pretty staved and sourced from the Pacific,
If this system would be tracking through the region in the dead of
winter, it would be an impactful clipper. However; with warmer 850mb
temperatures, a lack of this systems organization will lead to non-
significant QPF. Highest probabilities remain around a quarter inch
near and around the Straits, but low probabilities (roughly 10%) of
a half inch or more for localized areas remains possible. The
remainder of the forecast period remains pretty dry this weekend
through midweek next week with highs in the 60s for most areas as we
approach mid October.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
VFR. High pressure moves overhead for the forecast period. Some
high based marine influence clouds over NW lower this morning
will scour out with time. Perhaps some fair weather cu build
back in the afternoon, but cloud bases set to be 5,000 to
8,000ft. Light N to NNW winds today, becoming calm overnight.
Little to no fog development anticipated overnight.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ017-018-
     022>024-027>030-032>036-041-042-086>088-095-096.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion