Natural Bridge, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

853
FXUS61 KRNK 061412
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1012 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon associated with
a passing cold front. Behind the passage of the cold front,
surface high pressure will overtake the region leading to foggy
mornings but mostly clear skies by the afternoon and evening
hours. An extended dry period looks likely through at least next
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Saturday...
No major changes were made to the forecast for today. Showers
and thunderstorms look to develop along and east of the Blue
Ridge this afternoon and progress east throughout the evening.
Previous Discussion:
Key Messages:
1) Strong to severe storms possible along and east of the Blue
Ridge this afternoon.
2) Cooler weather to arrive behind a cold frontal passage
tonight.
A strong upper level trough centered across the Great Lakes will
progress eastward through tonight. A strong surface low in
Canada with an associated cold front stretching into the
southern CONUS will pass across the region this afternoon and
evening. Strong southerly flow ahead of the front, along with
increasing moisture advection will result in an increasingly
favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop along the
eastward progressing front.
Cold front is currently across Kentucky and southern Ohio this
morning and a line of decaying convection is moving across West
Virginia. Guidance has this line of storms continuing to weaken
as it moves east. However, debris clouds and lingering rain
showers could inhibit destabilization for areas west of the Blue
Ridge. Areas along and east of the Blue Ridge continue to look
the most favorable for storms this afternoon where strong
surface heating is expected. Couple the strong heating with
increasing dew points, this should result in CAPE reaching 1000
to 2000 J/kg by late morning and into early afternoon. Should
begin to see storms develop as early as noon, with the main
storm mode being multicellular clusters with favoring damaging
wind gusts. Should see conditions improve by late evening with
only some lingering rain showers into tonight as cooler air
arrives behind the front.
Lingering clouds and a few rain showers will limit heating west
of the Blue Ridge with temperatures likely remaining in the mid
to low 70s. Mostly sunny skies east of the Blue Ridge and strong
southwest flow should allow for temperatures to quickly warm
into the 80s and possible a few low 90s into the Piedmont of
VA/NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is high for drier weather as high pressure wedges
against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge.
2) Temperatures should dive below normal to start the week.
Drier air should head eastward towards the Appalachian Mountains in
the wake of a departing cold front on Sunday. Lingering showers
across the Piedmont in the morning should head into central North
Carolina and Virginia by the afternoon. High pressure originally
from central Canada should arrive during Sunday night into Monday,
which will send temperatures plummeting into the 40s and 50s. A cool
and dry northeast flow will develop as high pressure wedges against
the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. This overall pattern should
persist throughout Tuesday and keep temperatures below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is high for dry weather with high pressure still
wedged against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge.
2) Temperatures should return to near normal values.
High pressure will remain wedged against the eastern slopes of the
Blue Ridge through the remainder of the week. The resulting cool and
dry northeast flow should keep any rain away from the Appalachian
Mountains, while temperatures will moderate closer to normal values
for this time of year. Moisture should remain suppressed along the
East Coast. Some model solutions depict that this dry pattern could
last notably further beyond the timeframe of this forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Saturday...
Mixed flight categories this morning ranging from VFR to LIFR.
This is highly dependent on patchy dense fog that will continue
through at least 9AM/13z, then dissipating thereafter. A few
light rain showers and occasional lightning across the southern
Blue Ridge will continue to weaken.
Expecting another round of storms to develop by late morning and
especially during the early afternoon hours. Highest confidence
of storms will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, but have
kept mention of storms in all TAFs at all terminals for at least
a couple hours. Should see storms diminish and move east by
00z/8PM this evening, but some MVFR cigs and lingering showers
could continue after sunset. Areas of fog possible again tonight
as well, especially in areas that see rainfall today.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Drier air arrives Sunday into early next week as high pressure
returns to the region, resulting in mainly VFR conditions
outside any late night/early morning fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion