Neapolis Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

215
FXUS63 KIWX 090954
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
554 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of frost possible again Friday morning.
- Temperatures warm back to near or slightly above normal this
  weekend into next week.
- Rain will remain sparse through the next 7 days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Overall not a lot of changes to the previous forecast with 2
main areas of focus lying with one more night of frost potential
and what, if any precip, occurs with an upper level wave and
associated sfc boundary Friday afternoon into Friday night
(maybe early Saturday).
Light NE flow continues to advect mid 30 dewpoints and
subsequently allowing temperatures to slowly fall with NE
sections to similar levels with this trend expected to persist
through sunrise. No changes to the current Frost Advisory.
Temps will recover during the day, climbing back into the low to
mid 60s. Although temps will warm, dewpoints will likely remain
in the 30s, likely setting the stage for one more night of
patchy to areas of frost with the greatest focus east of US-31
where lows should dip into the mid 30s. As a result, additional
headlines will likely be needed, but consensus of surrounding
offices was to hold off on new issuance given the current
headlines in place.
Closed upper low will make its way from northern Saskatchewan
this morning to N Lower MI by 6Z Sat. Models continue to have a
bit of an uptick in precip chances possibly as early as Fri
afternoon far NW, with main focus possibly 21Z Fri to 6Z Sat.
Although PWATs do increase to 0.75 to locally 1", much of the
moisture is in the mid and upper levels with a somewhat drier
layer below 900 mb. Far NW area soundings to suggest at least a
brief window of saturation, but overall QPF and coverage
warrants no more than chc pops. Models try to linger some slgt
chc pops overnight and into Sat morning, but this is likely
overdone. Highs Sat are a few degrees lower than previous
forecast due to cloud cover and slight drop in 850 mb temps, but
still very seasonable. The cooler temps will linger into Sunday
as the upper low slowly fills and shifts east.
Temperatures will quickly transition to above normal again for
at least Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 70s as
upper level heights increase, but the area will remain on the
edge of the ridge so models continue to show spurious chances
for showers that are likely overdone.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
The center of a large surface high pressure area continued over
Northern Lower Michigan. This system will keep clear skies and
light winds over northern Indiana. Any patchy fog will dissipate
shortly after sunrise.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081-177-
     277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion