Negley Pond Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

038
FXUS61 KCTP 140751
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
351 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Gradual decrease in clouds today marks the start of another
  prolonged dry/rain-free stretch through Saturday
* Seasonable temperatures bottom Thursday night then trend
  warmer/well above the historical average this weekend
* Rain is most likely Sunday into Sunday night followed by a
  breezy cool down to start next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low clouds wrapping around the northwest side of the departing
coastal storm are expected to gradually (slowly) decrease
through the day. Initial guidance has been too optimistic on
the clearing, so we were keen to ramp up and prolong the clouds
(perhaps getting stuck under the subsidence inversion)
utilizing a sky cover blend weighted heavily toward the 90th
percentile. More clouds could also knock down max temps by a few
degrees from current fcst highs in the 60-70F range or about
+10F warmer vs. yesterday.
Following at least partial clearing by early evening, the latest
HREF favors another uptick in layered cloud cover (from NW->SE)
later tonight into Wednesday morning. This cloud increase
appears to be in response to a shortwave tracking to the north
through NY and arrival of a weak/moisture-starved cold front.
Best chance (~10%) of rain with the front is downwind of Lake
Erie based on the latest NBM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler and very dry air (PWAT values -1 to -2SD or 

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion