Nevada, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

286
FXUS63 KSGF 231124
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of widespread heavy rainfall and flooding are forecast
  to occur across our south AND southwestern counties this
  morning into Wednesday. A Flood Watch is in effect for
  portions of the area through Wednesday morning.
- There is a Marginal risk for severe weather through this
  morning and into this afternoon, primarily south of Highway
  54, with damaging winds as the primary hazard. A Slight risk
  exists for areas along the Arkansas State line in McDonald
  and Barry Counties.
- Seasonal temperatures and lingering rain chances will occur
  midweek before drier, more pleasant conditions arrive into the
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The region remains under the influence of a rather active upper
level weather pattern. An upper low over the Great Lakes and
it`s attendant trough moved through the region late last night
and was approaching the Ohio River Valley region early this
morning. At the same time another upper low is digging into the
Four Corners region with an attendant surface low moving across
the central plains on the eastern side of the positively tilted
trough. As the surface low moves east associated with an upper
level short wave on the eastern side of the upper trough, it has
developed an MCS which was making its way across southern
Kansas and Northern Oklahoma. Deep southerly flow was aiding in
providing ample moisture for the system and despite the time of
day, MUCAPE values in and ahead of the MCS were in the 1800 to
2500 j/kg range as noted by CAMS. AS the low/cold front pushes
the MCS east the 40-50kt LLJ over KS/OK will nose into
southwestern Missouri around sunrise.
CAMs have been insistent in moving this storm system into and
through the Ozarks region this morning through this evening.
This may occur with several rounds of trailing showers/storms
into Wednesday. In advance of the system moving into the
region, a warm front is expected to lift into the Ozarks. Where
this warm front ultimately ends up is unsure, but heavy
rainfall is likely to occur along and south of the front, which
could lead to a flooding threat primarily over areas in our
south/southwest, generally along and south of Highway 54.
Ensemble guidance, 24-hour HREF LPMM (Local probability matched
mean - which shows reasonable localized high-end amounts) shows
widespread 0.75"-1.25", with far southwest MO between 1.5"-3"
and localized pockets between 5-6". With soil moistures in the
60-80%+ range for some areas which did receive rainfall over
the weekend. area after already receiving 2-5" (localized up to
8- 9") over the weekend. Because of this a Flood Watch remains
in effect for our southern/southwest counties through Wednesday
morning to account for the flooding threat. As previously
mentioned, drought conditions will likely be improving after the
sufficient rainfall.
In additions to the flood potential the Storm Prediction Center
has placed much off the Ozarks in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5)
for severe thunderstorms for areas along and south of Highway 54
with a small area of Slight Risk (2 out of 5) across southern
McDonald and Barry Counties.
The primary hazard will be damaging winds as the frontal
boundary pushes thunderstorms into the area. The best timing
for severe storms should be during the early afternoon hours,
with the potential for some lingering severe chances into the
late afternoon/early evening. Dewpoints into the upper 60s/low
70s, instability between 1800-2500 J/kg, 0-6km shear from
25-30kts, and ample lift will all support more of an organized
severe threat. Though the better threat looks to be more south
of the area over Oklahoma/Arkansas. There`s a low chance (5%)
for an isolated tornado, with HREF 4-hr max updraft helicity
tracks highlighting this potential over the very far southwest
CWA before pushing south into Arkansas. The more likely hazards
are expected to be large hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall.
A few CAMS also suggest some free convection showers developing
in the warm sector ahead of the system this morning. Depending
on the coverage of these showers, may have some impact on the
later convection.
With all the above mentions ingredients, by 00z the LLJ will be
over the region and the Ozarks will also be in the center of a
coupled upper level jet. This would provide ample lift for
convection to continue but will also help drag the strongest
portions to the northeast overnight tonight.
The upper level trough will make its way though the region then
during the day Wednesday with ongoing additional showers and
scattered storms.This will also usher in a cooler, more
seasonable airmass.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Despite a few lingering isolated showers early Thursday morning
(097-
     101>105.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion