New Hartford Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

238
FXUS63 KARX 091906
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
206 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A line of scattered showers/storms is expected tonight through
  Friday morning (30-70%). Impacts are expected to be minimal
  with rainfall amounts under 0.25 inches.
- A mostly dry weekend is expected ahead of shower potential
  again Sunday into Monday (20-50%).
- Seasonable temperatures are expected over the next 7 days with
  highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 40s to low 50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Showers and Storms Tonight Through Friday Morning
Upper level longwave ridging remains the primary influence of
our weather today through the weekend. A transient 500hPa wave
sinks southward into the Great Lakes region along the United
States/Canada border forcing a frontal boundary east-southeast
through the Upper Midwest tonight into Friday. 850hPa moisture
transport along the front combined with forcing from the
boundary itself is expected to spark a line of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms along said boundary as it moves
through the region (30-70%). Given the progressive nature of the
wave/associated surface boundary, overall impacts are expected
to be minimal. Rainfall amounts at any given location are
expected to be generally 0.1-0.25 inches as suggested by the
09.00z HREF LPMM although a few pockets of locally higher
amounts are possible, primarily north of I-90. Showers and
storms move east of our area by mid morning Friday with breezier
conditions come the afternoon.
Mostly Dry Weekend Before Additional Shower Potential
Ridging takes hold over the region again behind the
aforementioned wave and showers tonight into Friday which will
continue to influence our weather through Sunday. As such, dry
conditions are anticipated under the associated height rises and
subsidence.
On Sunday, another 500hPa shortwave ejects into the Northern
Plains, promoting surface cyclogenesis, which will be the focus
of additional precipitation chances. In response to the
developing surface low to our west, 850hPa warm air advects into
the region during the day Sunday, which could promote some
shower development during the daytime hours with 20-40%
probabilities depicted in the 09.13z NBM. Then, the associated
cold front moves eastward through the Upper Midwest Sunday
evening into the overnight hours, becoming another catalyst for
shower and perhaps isolated thunderstorm development (30-50%).
Drier conditions then develop for the beginning of next week as
ridging and high pressure again build across the central United
States.
Seasonable Temperatures Through the New Week
Temperatures remain fairly consistent over the next 7 days. The
various shortwaves followed by ridging/high pressure indicates
airmasses are not able to stagnate for long. As such,
temperatures right around normal are expected with high
temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s and low
temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Increased spread in the
ensemble guidance develops by the middle of next week, leading
to uncertainty in the ultimate temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
VFR conditions continue through this afternoon into the evening
with south to southeast winds gusting to 15-25kts, strongest
west of the Mississippi River.
Overnight, a line of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms is expected to move east-southeast through the
region (30-70%), generally between 10.00z and 10.12z, with the
highest probabilities north of I-90. Impacts are expected to be
minimal with primarily VFR conditions, but pockets of MVFR
visibilities and ceilings are possible in and around
showers/storms. Overnight, low level wind shear is possible
across the region given increased low level winds. Given this
potential, have added mentions to the KLSE TAF.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Falkinham

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion