549 FXUS64 KMEG 291710 AFDMEGArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- High pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather into next weekend.
- Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
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.DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
High pressure at the surface and aloft prevail across the region this morning with clear skies. Temps are quickly climbing above 80 degrees and winds are light from the northeast.
Not much excitement over the next 7 days as surface high pressure remains anchored over the eastern CONUS and TS Imelda heads out to sea. Expect dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures to continue with highs in the upper 80 to near 90. A weak shear axis across the region and a slight uptick in surface moisture could lead to an isolated shower or storm Wed into Thu but that is a stretch. That uptick in moisture pushes west of the area by Friday with dry and mild conditions continuing into early next week.
The weak shear axis across the Mid-South will drift south by the end of the week, perhaps forming a weak upper low along the Gulf coast by the weekend. Latest guidance lifts this feature northeast toward the Carolinas early next week with little impact on the Mid-South. No appreciable rainfall is on the horizon for the next 10 days and temps will remain above normal.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions will prevail under high pressure. E/NE flow sub 10 kts will continue for the next 30 hours.
DNM
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Fire weather concerns remain low as minimum relative humidity values of 35 to 45 percent are expected into next weekend. 20 ft winds will also be light at 5-10 knots. Wetting rain chances remain low through the entire forecast period. So, fuels will begin drying again for the foreseeable future.
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.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
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PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...DNM
NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion