New Mexico State University New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS64 KEPZ 140447
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1047 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- Abundant moisture from tropical remnants remain over the region.
   A slow moving west coast trough will keep will bring the
   atmosphere unsettled. This means a continuation of isolated to
   scattered showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday.
   result in localized flooding.
- Drier air begins to move in from the west Thursday, with a dry
   weekend ahead. Temperatures will warm back to near normal
   temperatures for mid-October.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Tomorrow will start a transition, but it won`t come quickly, as we
begin to see the end of deep tropical moisture infiltration. Water
Vapor imagery is already showing a sharp drying signature working in
from the south and the west, especially aloft, but we will continue
to have plenty of mid and lower level moisture streaming across the
area. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s, with well above normal
PWATs. However, we have been under performing on the sounding
PWAT vs. the model PWAT. i.e. tonight we measured 1.08" vs model
PWAT of ~1.45". None the less, we still have plenty of west coast
troughing and low pressure disturbances to track over the region,
and work on what moisture we do have. These low pressure features
will linger through the rest of the week, but the moisture won`t,
as it looks to begin flushing Wednesday. For tomorrow, we expect a
much more typical "precip" day across the region, with a wide
variety of sky conditions, ranging from areas of mostly sunny, to
building clouds, to overcast area. In addition, we should see more
showers and storm, forming from heating and orographics, vs a
widespread shield of stratiform light to moderate rain. Tomorrow
we will have some of the necessary ingredients for strong to
severe storms, in the forms of wind shear and CAPE. However, the
hi-rez, CAM models are in good agreement to hold off on storms
until late in the day, even possibly until the evening hours.
Tomorrow, with more sunshine, we will see a noticeable bump up in
temperatures, with the afternoon highs being very near mid-October
normals.
For Wednesday, it looks like we will keep a more concentrated,
skinny, plume of residual moisture over the eastern parts of the
region, with drier conditions likely over western and central areas.
Thus we will scrub out all rain/storm mentions for western areas,
and keep some for the eastern areas.
Thursday looks to be our full flush-out of moisture.  A sharp wave
will transition across the region, through the large upper trough to
our west, this will increase and veer winds more westerly. This
should shove out most of our remaining moisture, and move it to our
east. This should be our next day with no mention of POPs areawide.
Friday will complete this process as a small and sharp upper low
passes to our north. Thursday could be breezy, and Friday could be
windy, from the west.
Finally, ridging aloft moves over for the upcoming weekend for
warmer and drier, fair weather conditions across the Borderland.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Active and unsettled weather will prevail throughout the first
several hours of the overnight for this TAF cycle. Mainly for
KELP, and possibly KLRU, with lesser chances for KDMN and KTCS.
SCT Shwrs and tstms will continue with periods of low CIGS and low
VSBY. Expect rapidly changing flight CATs from VFR to MVRF and
even IFR, as showers and ISOL TSTMs track across or VCTY of
terminals. These shrws and storms will develop and track NE across
the region. Lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys can be expected due to direct
hits by shwrs/tstms. AFT 10-12Z showers/storms look to track NE
and out of the region. Improved conditions for tomorrow through
much of the day, but with some lingering cloud cover, and a chance
for another round of late afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Abundant moisture will help to temper fire weather concerns
through the early portion of the forecast period. Tropical
moisture and rain in the early part of the week will keep minRH
values in the 50 to 70 percent range for most areas. The storm
system responsible for the unsettled weather will slide up into
the Great Basin Tuesday, placing the Borderland into a regime of
southwest flow aloft. A drying trend will take hold thereafter,
with minRH values decreasing to 25 to 40 percent in the lowlands
by Thursday through the weekend. Winds will generally be light but
low-end breezy conditions will be possible in the afternoon later
in the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  66  86  63 /  40  70  20  30
Sierra Blanca            84  57  82  57 /  50  40  10   0
Las Cruces               79  60  81  55 /  50  60  20  50
Alamogordo               81  60  82  59 /  40  80  40  30
Cloudcroft               62  45  63  45 /  50  90  50  30
Truth or Consequences    78  60  79  53 /  70  60  20  50
Silver City              71  54  73  46 /  90  60  10  20
Deming                   80  60  83  53 /  70  40  10  40
Lordsburg                77  57  79  48 /  80  30  10  10
West El Paso Metro       82  65  84  62 /  40  70  10  30
Dell City                85  58  85  59 /  30  60  20   0
Fort Hancock             89  64  89  63 /  40  50  10  10
Loma Linda               78  57  79  57 /  30  70  20  20
Fabens                   86  63  87  61 /  30  70  10  10
Santa Teresa             80  62  83  58 /  40  70  10  30
White Sands HQ           81  62  82  60 /  50  70  30  40
Jornada Range            79  60  81  56 /  60  60  30  50
Hatch                    81  60  83  55 /  70  60  20  50
Columbus                 81  62  83  55 /  50  40  10  30
Orogrande                80  59  81  58 /  40  80  30  30
Mayhill                  71  49  72  49 /  50  80  50  20
Mescalero                73  49  74  49 /  50  80  60  40
Timberon                 68  48  69  47 /  40  90  40  20
Winston                  71  50  73  42 /  80  50  10  30
Hillsboro                76  56  78  49 /  80  50  20  40
Spaceport                77  57  79  53 /  70  60  30  50
Lake Roberts             73  50  74  43 /  90  60  20  30
Hurley                   73  55  76  47 /  90  50  10  20
Cliff                    78  56  80  48 /  90  50  20  10
Mule Creek               73  50  74  45 /  90  50  20  10
Faywood                  73  57  75  48 /  80  50  10  30
Animas                   79  56  81  48 /  80  20   0   0
Hachita                  78  57  80  48 /  70  30  10  20
Antelope Wells           80  57  83  49 /  60  20  10  10
Cloverdale               72  53  74  48 /  70  10  10   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion