New Middletown, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

740
FXUS61 KCLE 182003
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly weakens tonight and Friday, allowing a
backdoor cold front to move southwest across the area during the day
Friday. High pressure builds back into the Northeast for Saturday. A
warm front lifts across the area Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The near term forecast period will remain quiet with fair
weather conditions. High pressure is over the Ohio Valley this
afternoon and bringing another nice, sunny afternoon. High
temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to upper 80s across
the area. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, but there
could be some patchy fog again by sunrise Friday morning.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the middle 50s to around
60 degrees.
A backdoor cold front will slide southwestward across the area
on Friday. Moisture is very limited with this front. There will
be a slight increase in clouds Friday with the cold frontal
passage. High temperatures will a greater range from north to
south on Friday with middle to upper 70s closer to the
lakeshore and middle to upper 80s south of the Highway 30s
corridor. High pressure from southern Ontario will build down
over the eastern Great Lakes Friday night. Overnight low temps
will range from the upper 40s over northwest Pennsylvania,
lower to middle 50s over northeast Ohio, and middle to upper 50s
over northwest Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weak front will stall out across northwest and central Ohio
by Saturday morning. There will be an increase in high and mid
level cloudiness on Saturday. Afternoon temperatures Saturday
will again be warm ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s.
An upper level trough will move eastward from the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region
Saturday and Saturday night. In response to the southerly to
southwesterly flow ahead of that upper level trough, the stalled
front will lift back northward across the area as a warm front
Saturday night. There could be a slight chance for an isolated
shower or two with the warm front.
By Sunday, the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region will be
in a broad southwesterly flow aloft and a light southerly flow
near the surface. Moisture levels will also start increase by
Sunday. POPs will increase 20 to 30 percent on Sunday for a few
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm. High
temperatures Sunday will be in the lower to middle 80s areawide
due to the light southerly flow. A weak cold front will slowly
slide southeastward into the Great Lakes region Sunday night.
Ahead of that front, our rain chances will also increase between
40 and 60 percent later Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weather pattern is now looking a little more unsettled and
better rain chances for early and middle of next week. A weak
front will stall out somewhere over the Ohio Valley or Lower
Great Lakes region early next week. There will be several mid
level disturbances in the westerly flow that will track across
the Ohio Valley and interact with this stalled frontal boundary.
The higher POPs will be Monday and Tuesday. The forecast
confidence level is lower for the middle of next week and lesser
POPs at this time. Average QPF for early to middle of next week
ranges from 0.50"to 1.25" which has increased with the latest
forecast guidance. Temperatures for early next week will remain
above average in the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
At the surface, a ridge extends from New England for the time
being. A weak and overall moisture-starved cold front should
sweep S`ward through our region between ~09Z/Fri and ~16Z/Fri.
Behind the front, another ridge builds from northern ON and
vicinity through 18Z/Fri. Ahead of the front, our regional
surface winds trend variable in direction and around 5 knots.
However, a lake breeze around 5 to 10 knots will impact
locations within several miles of Lake Erie until ~00Z/Fri,
including KCLE and KERI. Behind the front, primarily N`erly to
NE`erly winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected.
Dry weather is expected through the TAF period, including during
the passage of the weak and overall moisture-starved cold front.
Along and especially behind the surface front, scattered to
broken low clouds based near 3kft to 5kft AGL are expected. KERI
has the greatest potential to experience a MVFR ceiling due to
the low clouds. Surface visibility will be mainly VFR through
the TAF period. However, localized mist/fog with associated MVFR
or lower visibility are forecast between ~09Z/Fri and ~13Z/Fri
in interior far-NE OH and NW PA, including at KYNG.
Outlook...Dry weather and VFR expected through Saturday.
Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR expected this
Saturday night through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Wind speeds around 5 to 10 knots and waves of 2 feet or less are
expected through tonight. A ridge extends from New England and
winds remain variable in direction for the time being. However,
winds trend onshore through this early evening due to a lake
breeze. During this evening through the wee hours of Friday
morning, a weak cold front will drift S`ward across Lake Erie
and be followed by a ridge building from northern ON and
vicinity. Variable winds ahead of the front become NW`erly
behind the front and veer quickly to NE`erly in response to the
building ridge.
Wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots are expected during most of
Friday through Saturday night. However, winds as strong as 15 to
20 knots are expected Friday night into Saturday. NE`erly to
E`erly winds through Saturday become SE`erly Saturday night as
the aforementioned ridge continues to affect Lake Erie and the
parent high pressure center moves from northern ON toward ME.
Waves of 3 feet or less on Friday build to as large as 3 to 6
feet Friday night into Saturday, especially between roughly the
The Islands and Long Point, ON. A Small Craft Advisory will
probably be needed. Waves should subside to 3 feet or less
Saturday night as winds ease.
A warm front will drift N`ward across Lake Erie Sunday through
Sunday night, which will cause SE`erly winds around 5 to 15
knots to veer to S`erly. However, winds should flirt with 20
knots at times Sunday night. Primarily S`erly to SW`erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots are expected Monday through Tuesday as a
separate ridge builds from the southern Appalachians. These
winds should flirt with 20 knots at times Monday morning. Waves
of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers
are likely Sunday night into Monday morning, especially in open
U.S. waters.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion