New York, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

510
FXUS64 KFWD 141757
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon
  highs in the lower to mid 90s.
- There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms on a daily basis
  beginning Wednesday and continuing through next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/
Benign weather will continue through Monday. Showers and storms
tied to a shortwave trough in West Texas have remained outside of
the area this morning. However, there is a low potential (20%
chance) some of this activity could skirt portions of the Big
Country this afternoon. Otherwise, rain-free weather will continue
through the period for most areas, with temperatures remaining a
few degrees above normal. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to
mid 90s today and tomorrow with morning lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Subsidence will see a subtle increase tonight into Monday
as the upper level ridge axis attempts to build back into the
region. This will keep most locations rain-free again on Monday,
despite another low potential (20% chance) for isolated showers or
storms in the Big Country as another weak shortwave moves across
the region.
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/
Following another quiet day on Tuesday, the upper level ridge will
shift further west once again heading into the mid-week time
period, placing us beneath intermittent north/northwest flow
aloft for the remainder of the forecast period. A series of
shortwave troughs will swing around the base of an upper level
low centered near the Midwest/Great Lakes region, bringing
periodic rain chances to North and Central Texas Wednesday onward
as these disturbances skirt the area. Temperatures will trend
closer to average values during this time period (though still
slightly above normal), with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low
90s Thursday through the weekend. We`ll have to monitor the
potential for any of these upper level disturbances to be
accompanied by a cold front, especially late next weekend into
early next week.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites, with SCT to BKN
cirrus expected for much of the period. Winds will vary from
southeast to southwest but will generally remain near 10 knots or
less, outside of a few stronger gusts between 15 to 25 knots this
afternoon.
Barnes
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  74  93  73  93 /   0   5   5   0   5
Waco                92  72  92  70  92 /   0   0   5   0   0
Paris               91  69  92  68  93 /   0   0   5   0   5
Denton              94  70  93  69  93 /   0   5   5   0   5
McKinney            93  71  93  70  93 /   0   5   5   0   5
Dallas              94  75  94  74  94 /   0   0   5   0   5
Terrell             92  70  92  70  92 /   0   0   5   0   5
Corsicana           94  73  93  71  93 /   0   0   5   0   0
Temple              93  70  91  68  91 /   0   0   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       94  69  93  68  93 /   0   5  10   0   5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion