Ninemile Lake North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

826
FXUS63 KFGF 150453
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drizzle tonight across eastern North Dakota mainly west of the
  Valley.
- Widespread rain likely late Wednesday through Friday. The
  heaviest rainfall amounts are most likely in the northwestern
  portions of the area where a 50% chance for 0.75" or more of
  rainfall exists.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Once again expanded the coverage of drizzle but omitted any fog
as visibility reductions appear to more driven by the
drizzle/light rain than actual fog. Used cloud height threshold
of 1000ft to delineate where to put the DZ so may still be on
the pessimistic side but sounding support this last at least
through the morning hours with it currently in the grids across
the Devils Lake Basin and James River Valley until 18z
UPDATE
Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Upslope flow along the Missouri coteau and points west has lead
to the development of widespread drizzle in southern North
Dakota and South Dakota. With little change in the low level
pattern through the night and into the morning expecting this to
continue with some isolated fog possible. Added just the
drizzle to the forecast for now but will monitor for any fog in
later updates.
UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Showers are largely beginning to wane with just a few echos
remaining in the Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota with
minimal actual accumulation to come. Temperatures only dropping
into the upper 30s tonight so even if roads do remain wet at all
not expecting any slick spots to develop.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...Synopsis...
Persistent Pacific moisture continues to feed into our area this
afternoon with solid isentropic ascent contributing to ongoing
showers across our area. This will continue for the remainder of
the afternoon but should diminish around sunset for the most
part as stronger forcing exits the region. Drizzle cannot be
ruled out overnight but forcing appears weak enough that this
shouldn`t be an issue. Regardless, impacts will be minor from
this.
Attention will turn towards the currently land falling upper
low over the southern California coastline, which will begin to
lift towards our region Wednesday afternoon. Strong synoptic
forcing combined with intermittent frontogenesis will facilitate
solid rainfall across the region, particularly close to the
main track of the low. Ensemble guidance has honed in on mainly
a more westerly track for our area, placing the axis of heaviest
rainfall from the James River Valley up through the Devils Lake
Basin. This means that the heaviest rainfall amounts for our
area will most likely fall within the Devils Lake Basin, with
total rainfall estimates pushing close to an inch in some
locations. Totals will diminish as you progress further south
and east away from the forcing where rainfall amounts will fall
closer to a few tenths.
Rain should exit the area by Friday at the latest, giving a
brief period for warmer than normal conditions as large scale
ridging in a highly amplified pattern sets in behind the upper
low.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Conditions have gone downhill quickly in DVL as drizzle has
expanded just far enough east amid the upslope regime with IFR
to LIFR conditions likely through much of the period there.
Further east for valley sites like GFK and FAR, MVFR is with
ongoing or likely to develop in the next 6 hours with a low
chance for IFR. In BJI and TVF expect high MVFR through the day
with a low chance for drizzle that could bring vis to 4-5sm. DVL
currently seeing vis at 5sm but just a bit west over in rugby
vis at 2sm due to the drizzle.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...TT

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion