North Afton New York Weather Forecast Discussion

755
FXUS61 KBGM 151818
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
218 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through the remainder
of the week. A cold frontal boundary with our next chance of
showers moves in for Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in tonight through Thursday night with clearing
skies in most areas. There will still be some gradient of NW flow
through tomorrow thus prime radiational cooling and widespread frost
in the active growing areas seems less of a concern for tonight than
might be expected. Still looking at overnight lows in the 30s
tonight and highs in the 50s again on Thursday. With continued NW
cold NW flow across Lake Ontario at 850mb...will nudge up the NBM
cloud cover just a bit using NBM90 grids on Thursday as moisture
condenses along the LCL and CCL. There`s much less pressure gradient
forecast on Thursday night where frost in the Finger Lakes and
Wyoming Valley areas may be prolific as temperatures reach the lower
to mid 30s. Will reserve Frost Advisories for this time period
rather than tonight. Upper 20s will be possible in some parts of the
Catskills and the Twin Tiers as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in control at the surface with a thermal ridge
building into the Northeast which will allow for a slight warming
trend to begin this weekend. Precipitation is expected to remain at
bay during this time with high temperatures rising into the lower-
mid 60s for Saturday. Some mid-high clouds may punch through the
ridge axis aloft for only a partly sunny day Saturday, but Friday is
likely to be quite sunny in most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An active pattern sets up during this period as a longwave trough
sets up along the northern tier of the U.S. with fairly amplified
shortwaves cutting underneath. Model spreads become much more
uncertain in handling the upper level heights and there are also
timing differences in the ensembles, but it still looks like
reasonably high probabilities for rain exists in the Sunday night-
Monday timeframe and then again Tuesday or Wednesday. South winds on
Sunday afternoon are likely to be blustery with potential gusts over
30 mph. We`ll keep an eye on this. Lake effect rain showers in
between the two frontal systems will keep the NY counties unsettled
throughout.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cool and dry air mass behind the cold front is making a
strong push across central NY and northeast PA this morning.
Northwest winds have started to ramp up, and will continue
through the afternoon with gusts 15 to 20 knots before
diminishing this evening. Cloud ceilings will remain mostly VFR
as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds are expected to
remain around 5 to 10 kt tonight with the exception of scattered
low elevation/valley areas where the near-surface layer
decouples and winds go calm. Areas of valley fog and brief IFR
restrictions are possible (15 to 25 pct chance) after 06Z
tonight...mainly at ELM. Winds at RME and ITH will likely not
decouple and become too northerly to induce restrictions
tonight.
Outlook...
Thursday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of
valley fog each morning.
Sunday and Monday...Restrictions possible with a front moving
through, especially later in the day Sunday and into Monday.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...BJT/DK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion