North Carmen, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

096
FXUS65 KABQ 040707
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
107 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- South to southwest wind gusts 35 to 50 mph this afternoon
  increase will create hazardous crosswinds for high-profile
  vehicles.
- A season ending freeze is possible for the Upper Rio Grande
  Valley Sunday morning, focusing in areas from Taos northward
  into CO.
- Isolated showers and storms will develop across northwestern to
  north-central New Mexico this morning through this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
An early Fall 563dm H5 storm system is centered just north of Las
Vegas, NV tonight, spinning up increasing southerly to southwesterly
winds over the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico. An area of
showers and thunderstorms remains embedded within the right exit
region of the jetmax rounding the southern periphery of the H5 low
over northwestern NM and southwestern CO. This area will steadily
progress eastward over portions of San Juan and Rio Arriba Counties
this morning. Precipitation associated with this feature will lose
cohesion and begin to break apart as the main jetmax and trough axis
cross the Sangre de Cristo`s and exit over the high plains this
evening. Light showers and sprinkles could extend as far south as
Santa Fe and Albuquerque briefly this afternoon with the passage of
the Pacific Cold front. Meanwhile, stronger winds aloft will reach
the surface across much of northern and central NM this morning
bringing widespread gusts of 20-30 mph by this afternoon. Areas
along the northeastern highlands from Las Vegas to Raton to Clayton
will see the strongest wind gusts of 35-50 mph where the surface
pressure gradient will be sharpest. A Wind Advisory will be hoisted
where there is greatest confidence for 45-50mph wind gusts at Raton,
and may be expanded to include Las Vegas, NM and Clayton, NM.
A sharp drop in temperatures and moisture advects in behind the cold
front across western, central, and northern NM tonight through
Sunday morning. A 10F to 20F drop in MinTs is forecast Sunday
morning relative to this morning with lows falling into the 30s near
freezing across western and northern NM with 40s in the Rio Grande
Valley from Espanola to Albuquerque and the Estancia Valley. 50s
will hold onto lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley by Socorro
and across the eastern plains toward TX. In fact, a Freeze Watch
will be laid out for the Upper Rio Grande Valley where there is
moderate confidence for freezing temperatures 30F to 32F from Taos
northward to the CO border. A pleasant Fall day looks to take hold
Sunday afternoon with moderate southwesterly breezes.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Monday begins the long term period with a steady switch to a more
unstable weather pattern. Southerly flow looks to advect northward
increased low-level moisture from the Gulf. Showers with embedded
thunderstorms will favor a surface convergence area where this
southerly flow meets an oncoming cold front backing into
northeastern NM. Southwesterly shear with height will help organize
some of this uplift to thunderstorm activity somewhere from
northeastern to east-central to central NM Monday afternoon. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will likely wane Monday night into Tuesday
morning, reinvigorated Tuesday afternoon and advancing westward
toward the Continental Divide. Numerical model guidance shows PWATs
increasing to ~1.00" at ABQ which would threaten daily records for
early October. The repeated rounds of rain alongside the anomalously
high moisture content supports the marginal excessive rainfall
outlook by WPC for Tuesday. This weather pattern looks to persist
Wednesday with an area of high pressure taking hold Thursday
trending moisture and precipitation chances down. Attention Friday
and beyond will turn to whether or not the remnants of an EPAC TC
will work its way into the Desert Southwest, or remain OTS (out-to-
sea). There has been considerable run-to-run and model-to model
inconsistency regarding this, and thus there is considerably low
forecast certainty for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Upper low centered north of Las Vegas, NV will continue to stream in
increasing southerly to southwesterly winds into NM tonight
resulting in widespread LLWS impacts to terminals. An area of
showers and thunderstorms near KFMN will also continue to slowly
progress eastwards over the CO San Juans tonight and NM Tusas Mts
Saturday morning. LLWS concerns abate as stronger winds aloft reach
the surface at many locations b/w 16Z to 18Z Saturday, peaking in
strength with widespread gusts of 20kts to 30kts in the afternoon.
Wind prone locations from KLVS to KRTN will likely see peak gusts
of 35kts to 40kts Saturday afternoon. Have also continued mention
of PROB30s for short duration showers and stronger gusty winds
with the passage of the Pacific Cold front into the Rio Grande
Valley from KSAF to KABQ. Prevailing wind speeds fall past 01Z to
03Z Saturday evening for many western and central terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Moderate to strong southerly to southwesterly winds today will
result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions,
mainly focused over the west-central mountains and northeastern
highlands and plains. However, given the recent moisture to end
monsoon season, fuels do not look to be very receptive to fire
spread. Modest southerly to southwesterly breezes forecast Sunday,
with lighter prevailing winds Monday and beyond. Increased moisture
content arrives next week bringing increased shower and thunderstorm
activity each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday before trending drier
Thursday and Friday. Another uptick in moisture and precipitation
chances is favored again by next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  74  39  72  42 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  70  30  70  33 /  70   0   0   0
Cuba............................  73  38  71  40 /  30   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  71  32  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  71  34  70  40 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  76  35  75  38 /  10   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  75  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  76  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  73  39  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  79  42  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  84  48  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  62  30  65  35 /  70   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  70  43  69  47 /  30   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  72  41  70  43 /  10  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  69  36  67  40 /  40  10   0   0
Red River.......................  60  31  59  35 /  30  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  66  29  65  28 /  20  10   0   0
Taos............................  73  32  71  38 /  30  10   0   0
Mora............................  69  38  70  38 /  20  10   0   0
Espanola........................  78  41  76  43 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  73  43  70  46 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  76  41  74  43 /  10  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  50  77  54 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  50  80  53 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  47  82  51 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  49  79  51 /  10   5   0   0
Belen...........................  84  45  83  49 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  47  80  49 /  10   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  83  44  81  48 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  84  48  80  49 /  10   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  83  45  81  49 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  78  46  75  50 /  10   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  48  80  50 /  10   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  86  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  74  43  72  47 /  10   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  76  45  73  49 /  10   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  76  41  75  45 /   5   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  39  77  41 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  44  72  45 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  76  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  76  46  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  55  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  72  51  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  71  42  72  39 /   0  10   0   5
Raton...........................  75  40  75  40 /   5  10   0   0
Springer........................  77  41  78  40 /   5  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  73  42  73  41 /   5  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  81  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  76  47  77  46 /   5  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  84  54  85  51 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  80  52  81  51 /   5   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  57  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  86  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  86  58  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  57  85  57 /   0   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  88  59  90  60 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  84  54  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  80  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for NMZ216.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ227-228.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion