North Crossroads, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS64 KMEG 170420
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1120 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue into
  Wednesday mainly over north Mississippi and south of I-40 in
  east Arkansas.
- Temperatures will return to the upper 80s and lower 90s this
  weekend.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a
  lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat. This also
  raises wildland fire concerns through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
00Z upper air analysis features a Rex blocking pattern over the
Continental United States with a high centered over the Great
Lakes Region, an upper-level low over the Carolinas, and an upper-
level through over the northern and central Rockies. Conditions
are relatively tranquil compared to 24 hours ago, following
showers and thunderstorms that moved across portions of West
Tennessee and North Mississippi Monday evening. Temperatures as
of 11 PM are mainly in the 70s.
A persistence forecast will continue through Friday as isolated
showers and thunderstorms may develop during peak heating each
day in a weakly sheared environment. Confidence in this
persistence forecast is moderate, with low-end rain chances
primarily focused across north Mississippi due to marginally
better moisture. As a result, rain chances were added in
consultation with surrounding offices with the NBM output
remaining dry.
The latest mid to long range model trends still indicate the Rex
Block breaking down over the U.S. this weekend as an upper-level
trough moves into New England and and a mid-level trough moves
into the Mississippi Valley. Models begin to diverge towards
early next week as a cutoff upper-level low may develop somewhere
over the Mississippi Valley. Nonetheless, this slight pattern
shift will support at least a modest increase in low rain chances
along with slightly cooler temperatures. Shear will remain weak
so best convective potential will be mainly during peak heating
each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A surface ridge remains directly overhead, giving way to light
and variable winds for the majority of the period. VFR conditions
continue to prevail with less than 20% chance of isolated
convection during peak heating Wednesday, thus opted not to
mention precip in the TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Minimum relative humidity values will range between 30 to
40 percent through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms remain possible across north
Mississippi and portions south of I-40 in east Arkansas on
Wednesday. Widespread rainfall is not expected. Wetting rain
chances will return by this weekend into early next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CAD

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion