North Lakes Park Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

944
FXUS64 KFWD 151729
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry weather will continue through Friday.
- A cold front will bring a chance of storms on Saturday, followed
  by a brief cooldown Saturday night and Sunday.
- Warm and dry weather returns early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Night/
Much of the short-term period will remain under the influence of a
persistent, unseasonably strong upper ridge of high pressure atop
the region. Thus, expect warm afternoon highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s across North and Central Texas this afternoon beneath
mostly sunny skies. Light east-northeast boundary layer winds and
subtle cool air advection will keep temperatures this afternoon
from getting too out of control.
Later tonight, a deep, upper-level low will shift off the West
Coast toward the Four Corners region. This change in the upper-
level pattern will draw a preceding shortwave northward out of
Mexico and over the state of Texas during the day Thursday. Little
change in the observable weather conditions are expected Thursday
with the passage of this wave save a notable increase in mid-level
cloud cover late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night along and
east of I-35. Although southeast low-level flow is expected to re-
establish by mid-morning Thursday, delayed moisture return will
keep the chance for any measurable precipitation through Thursday
night near zero.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday and Beyond/
North and Central Texas will remain in between troughs on Friday
with little notable weather expected minus a very low chance for
some afternoon seabreeze activity across the Brazos Valley. A
strengthening pressure gradient in the lee of the Rockies will
increase winds out of the south by Friday afternoon beginning a
period of slightly more robust moisture return ahead of the main
trough axis still lingering out over the Desert Southwest. South
winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph would cause some concern
for elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, but higher
humidity should temper the overall threat. However, some
localized areas of elevated fire weather conditions may still
arise west of Highway 281 where afternoon RH will likely fall
below 35%.
By Saturday, the aforementioned upper trough should be
transitioning out from over the Intercontinental Mountain West and
over the Central Plains. An attendant cold front should extend
across northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle by midday
Saturday with a dryline extending south of a surface low over
parts of the Big Country. These surface features will likely
provide a focus for convective development later Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night, however the greatest synoptic-scale
support and lift will reside across the Arklatex region and
points northeastward into the Ozarks. Thunderstorm coverage across
our forecast area will likely remain more isolated to scattered
with the greatest rain chances (30-50%) constrained to locations
east of I-35 in the best deep moisture/lift overlap. Unfortunately,
most locations west of I-35 will likely miss out on any
measurable rainfall during this event. Overall rainfall still
remains uncertain with a wide range of solutions in the ensemble
forecast. The NBM 25th-75th %tile spread ranges from a dry
forecast to 0.75" east of I-35 through Sunday morning. Favorable
shear and instability profiles may overlap for several hours
Saturday evening into Saturday night northeast of the Metroplex,
and we will need to monitor the potential for a couple strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms. But again, it is uncertain how
much storm coverage will materialize late Saturday across our
forecast area and with medium-range guidance trending toward a
slower, more northward-progressing system, widespread rain chances
are looking less probable.
Behind the frontal passage, breezy north winds will usher in a
much drier and more seasonably cool airmass to end the weekend.
Expect afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along and north
of I-20 Sunday afternoon and the low to mid 80s across Central
Texas. Sunday and Monday morning will be notably cooler with
widespread lows in the 50s. This period of normal, mid-October
temperatures will be short-lived with the upper ridge quickly
filling back in by Monday afternoon. There is some signal that the
upper-level pattern will become more active and progressive by
midweek next week, so stay tuned!
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all North
and Central Texas terminals. Light easterly winds generally below
10 kts will prevail through the remainder of today and into
tonight with south-southeasterly flow returning by mid-morning
Thursday.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  63  87  68  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                87  60  86  65  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               86  58  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              86  58  85  63  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            87  58  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              88  63  87  68  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             87  58  87  63  86 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           88  61  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              88  59  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       89  58  87  62  90 /   0   0   0   0   5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion