North Tank Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

674
FXUS65 KVEF 102316
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
416 PM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered showers and storms continue a flash flood threat through
  Saturday, mainly for areas along and east of the Interstate 15
  corridor.
* Moisture and precipitation chances get flushed out on Sunday as a
  trough swings through, leaving below-normal temperatures in its
  wake.
* Precipitation chances and gusty winds return mid-week as a more
  traditional cool-season, Pacific system approaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.
Scattered showers and storms continue today, largely confined to San
Bernardino, Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave counties. Like yesterday,
relatively strong flow aloft will keep precipitation moving off to
the northeast, so the ability for convection to train over the same
area is going to dictate the flash flood threat. This morning`s
guidance suggests that the greatest potential for training storms is
broadly along the I-15 corridor. Satellite imagery shows widespread
clouds southeast of I-15, and notable breaks in the cloud cover
along and northwest of the interstate. These breaks should allow for
instability to develop along the corridor this afternoon, and the
differential heating boundary may act as a subtle forcing mechanism
for storms. Farther southeast, abundant clouds will limit
instability and likely keep precipitation in more of a stratiform
mode, thus tempering the flash flood threat. Storms should begin to
taper off after sunset this evening, but showers may linger
overnight. As the next trough begins to move in tomorrow, moisture
and precipitation chances get pushed into Mohave County and eastern
Lincoln County. A lingering, isolated flash flood threat (~10%)
persists, but will be lower than today`s risk.
By Sunday, the aforementioned trough will have swung through the
area, scouring out moisture and leaving precipitation chances below
10% areawide. The drier airmass in its wake will also be notably
cooler, with highs on Sunday roughly 10 degrees lower than Saturday.
These below-normal temperatures are forecast to persist throughout
next week, especially with another trough set to dig along the
Pacific Coast. This system brings precipitation chances (20-50%) to
the western half of our CWA, with chances increasing as you head
west. In eastern Mohave County, the remnants of another tropical
system bring 20-40% PoPs on Monday, but the bulk of precipitation is
expected across central and southern Arizona.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Showers
and storms remain in the vicinity until ~06z this evening. Any
outflow winds are most likely to be in the 15-30 knot range, but if
a storm moves directly overhead, stronger gusts will be possible in
addition to brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Scattered to broken clouds
between 8-10kft. After 06z, precipitation chances move off to the
northeast and sky conditions gradually improved. Winds are expected
to be light and southerly or variable through the night. Dry
conditions tomorrow with gusty southwest winds of 20-30 knots in the
afternoon.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
storms continue this evening, primarily along the I-15 corridor and
points east. Any outflow winds are most likely to be in the 15-30
knot range, but if a storm moves directly overhead, stronger gusts
will be possible in addition to brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Scattered
to broken clouds between 8-10kft. After sunset, storms should weaken
with lingering showers into the overnight hours. Tomorrow,
precipitation chances become confined to Mohave and eastern Lincoln
counties. Elsewhere, expecting gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold
front and gusty northwest winds behind it. By 00z Saturday, the cold
front should be through most of Inyo, Nye, and Esmeralda counties.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Woods
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion